GOOGLE MOBILE: STOCK QUOTE SEARCH

Google has introduced "Google Mobile Search" through SMS from your mobile.

Google says "Get cricket scores, Indian Railways train schedules & ticket status, horoscopes, movie showtimes, restaurant information and more ...all through SMS on your phone."

Note: No premium charge for the search unlike other providers, only standard SMS charge.

Try the following search:
Reliance quote
SMS to 9-77-33-00000
You will get an SMS almost immediately as follows:
Stock:
500325 (Reliance Industries Ltd)
1184.00 (+43.00/3.80%)
Happy searching.

Go to the link for more informations: Google Mobile-SMS

STILL AT PE MULTIPLE OF THREE DIGITS

Are there still some equities with PE multiple of theree digits even after the mayhem of stock market?

Yes, there are. Some equities are still commanding that much of confidence (?) from investors. When most of the front line companies have corrected themselves to reasonable PE, the somewhat obscure or traders favourite companies are still there at that unreasonably high position.

Followings are few companies

Mineral and Metal Trading Corp.
Essar Oil
Reliance Natural Resources
Ispat Industries

It is hard to find justification for such high valuations.

More reading at Link The Economic Times

BOOK VALUE Vs MARKET VALUE?

It is hard to beleive that the book value of a blue script is more than its market value. But the present Bear run has made it possible. Few very good scripts has exactly shown this anomaly. Followings are the companies.

Tata Steel,
Cairn,
Hindustan Zinc,
Hindalco,
MTNL,
Videocon Industries,
Central Bank of India and
Allahabad Bank

Also among the relatively smaller companies the followings are notable.

Raymond,
Parsvnath,
Bajaj Hindusthan,
Vardhman Textiles  and
Bajaj Auto Finance.

The news item can be accessed from this link. Economictimes.

Should one go all out in aquiring the above stocks? I beleive in market sentiment, there may be reasons for this fundamental anomalies. But anyway this is a good start to study these stocks.

The news also says there are many more stocks of similar fate.

DILEMMA FOR SMALL INVESTORS

The Rakesh Jhunjhunwala interview was on NDTV Profit, not on CNN IBN, my apology to all. Thanks to Danny for pointing out.

Yesterday was another black friday, along with the world indexes, Sensex was down by 1000+ points even after so called discovery of value at above 10000, it was really one of the saddest day for small investors. Thousands of us lamenting below the expectation datum of even for small returns.

Will the market rebound again? How far our Reserve Bank can effort to lower the CRR level? They have the reponsibility of lookin into the economy of our country in a Wholistic way.

I am feeling particularly bad, as just in the previous day I downgraded myself being bullish to realist (another term of bearish?).

Point to Ponder for small investors: Should we withdraw our money from market with whatever loss we are incurring?

WHERE TO: INDIAN STOCK MARKET?

We dangerously hovering in some place from where we can see neither upside nor downside?

The statement from our PM, "cloudy sky", not that confident Rakesh Jhunjhunwala in CNN IBN yesternight and global scenerio has made me to reconsider my decision to be bull at least for near term.

Where to Indian Stock Market?

We small investors has more responsibility to protect our capital than to multiply it. Withdrow, your capital but keep your profit part there well parked in good stock.

What comes down will definitely go up. It is only matter of time.

MARKET FALACIES-1

It seems that it is almost sure that recession has set in world economy. If we consider all the factors India should be well insulated from the global turmoil. Our semi socialistic principles is saving us from the global downturn. We may be a little edgy right now but reasons will prevail very soon.
Will the Indian Stock Market will recover and prove the theory of decoupling of economies is right?
Though I still beleive the theory was a offshoot of a clever market manipulator. This one of the biggest Market falacies.
My earlier blog Posts. Link 1, 2, 3.

WHERE SENSEX IS HEADING TO?

IS THIS THE END OF THE WORLD?

IS THERE NOTHING LEFT IN INDIAN STOCK MARKET?

LOOKING AT SENSEX AT DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 10,000 MARK, IT GIVES ME SHIVERS IN MY SPINE. IT IS VERY NOT PLEASANT TO SEE MY CAPITAL ERODING.

INDIA IS A GROWING STORY. HAVE FAITH IN IT, BUT TREAD VERY VERY CAUTIOUSLY AT THIS VERY DIFFICULT JUNCTURE. NOBODY CAN PREDICT WHAT IS THERE IN FUTURE LURKING BEHIND THE MAZE OF COMPLEX FINANCIAL WEB. BUT STILL I AM A FIRM BELEIVER OF INDIAN STOCK MARKET.

RUMOURS ARE DOING ITS ROUND, BUT RUMOURS ARE RUMOURS.

"RUPEE IS AT A WHEN SENSEX WAS AT 5000, A FEW YEARS BACK. WILL SENSEX GO TO THAT LEVEL?"

BAKWAS!! MANY DOOMSDAY SAYER CRABS ARE THERE TO FINISH SMALL INVESTORS OFF.

IDENTIFY THEM AND REMEMBER WHAT THEY ARE SAYING NOW, JUST LIKE THOSE WHO WERE PROFESSING "THE THEORY OF DECOUPLING OF ECONOMICS". THESE ARE BAITS.

ALAS! YOU CAN SELL SOUR MANGOES ONCE, TWICE OR MAY BE MANY MANY TIMES TO THE REALLY SMALL AND HELPLESS UNSUSPECTING SMALL INVESTORS.

FEW GOOD STOCKS

It is difficult to imagine now, a few months back we were cruising at a rate of 9 percent growth, now it is a dismal 7 percent and we are trying hard to get to that figure. Inflation is at high 12 percent, crude price has shown some funny momentum but hopefully now settled at below 110 dollar per barrel. Nobody, including market pundits has anything concrete to forward their opinions on stock market. It requires braveness to pick up stocks at this juncture, especially for small investors. We don’t have much clue on what is going on there. Recently I have come across articles in which few stocks were identified which don’t have direct impact of the present economic scenario. I agreed to some extent, to their suggestions, though I believe no stock is secure from the current world economic scenario. I think it will be better to forward their recommendations for the perusal of small investors.
The stocks are
CRISIL
EDUCOMP SOLUTION
KALINDEE RAIL NIRMAN
PRIME FOCUS
TULIP TELECOM
VAKARANGEE SOFTWARES
The article also listed seven factors to look for in stocks to beat the slowdown. One can go through the article, which will also enable a small investor to pick up few more stocks other than the above listed.
Some articles are still relevant though may be two issues old.
Link: The gems in the corner (Business Today, Sept 7 2008 issue).

FEW STOCK IDEAS

The escewed market seems to be settled now.

Oil is more or less steady, gold is trying to find its groove. Probably stock market is settled and have it discovered its real worth?

But inflation is still high and rising , high interest rates should slow down loan activity and thereby growth. Monsoon activity is good, though political heat is rising. (What Mamata B is upto? Is she a real politician? Politicians should have more tact and statesmanship.)

Whenever it seems that market is going up there will be something which will pull it down. This is a out and out Bear market, though it should be a Bull market by all arguments. But market does not reacts on arguments, than on sentiments.

Can we hide from the realities for long and simply shy away from it? It will be foolhardy if we donot reap some benefits by way of changing outlook to a long term view. Some stocks I have noted below which may merit long term outlook, lets see if you agree with me.

Yes Bank

Opto Circuit

Sesa Goa

State Bank of India

BHEL

IDFC
Hope to see you in near future.

FAVOURITE STOCKS OF MUTUAL FUNDS

Should we invest in stock in these depressing days? For many it is a half filled glass situation rather than half empty. Some investors are just being adventurous and buying anything which is right now less than half of their price in their heydays. Prudent investors are judging what others are buying and why they are buying. And also for how long the prudent investors can stay invested. There are so many factors / parameters to consider before making a decision to invest. But anyway it helps a lot to steer our course if we consider what others are buying. Let’s see what the biggest investors in the market, the mutual funds are staying invested or what their preferred stocks are. I have sourced the data from The Economic Times.
Company
No of schemes invested
Sum of no. of shares held
Reliance Ind
230
3.51
Bharti Airtel
177
3.93
Infosys Tech
166
1.92
ICICI Bank
177
5.08
Larsen and Tourbo
166
1.38
BHEL
184
1.85
Reliance Comm
150
4.85
SBI
143
1.81
ITC
131
8.97
Tata Steel
155
3.27
HDFC
126
0.84
ONGC
121
3.06
Satyam Computer
111
2.82
Tata Consultancy
110
1.50
JP Associates
115
9.63
Sterlite Indd
101
1.59
UTI Bank
98
2.16
Crompton Greaves
96
6.72
Maruti Udyog
102
1.56
Tata Chemicals
75
2.65

MARKET WISHLIST

It has been a long time since I took a hiatus from blogging. It was a really turbulent period, as the market showed weakness beyond expectation. Small investors are trying to put up a brave face though bleeding inside. The maximum loss was to those who have entered into the arena in recent months.

I am trying to frame a wishlist of mine on the market after I saw an advertisement of an investment farm in a magazine. The punch line of the ad was “Riding out the turbulence. Wealth. What’s it to you?” Certainly an experience co-pilot should be of immense help, it will be the top most point of my wishlist. The co-pilots comes at a cost, small investors can ill effort the hefty amount they charge. The Indian Mutual Trust Industry is a good example. Even with all the good intentions, the regulators are at a loss how to address the issue of protecting the interest of small investors. Still it is better to park some part of our monies in some scheme which offers guaranteed return.

The second point of my wishlist will be to learn from my mistakes I have committed in the past. But, alas, I am a small investor and only a small fraction of small investor has shown this trait so far and I should not be an exception.

The third point I wish that the so called market experts on TV should be able to decipher the signal market is giving. In most cases I have seen these free experts fails in much of a similar fashion of a free iron I got with an annual subscription of a magazine. The TV experts have huge fan followings among the small investors.

In one of my earlier blog I promised to book profit whenever the chance presents itself. I wish I could have learned the trick when to book instead of a simple promise. Profit booking is another wish of mine.

Market maxim says buy, when the market is down. I am hardly left with any monies to buy, and I am not sure to take a loan to buy stocks right now. I wish I have some money to invest.

The wish list can be extended to many more points, probably the market is like our life, good things remains elusive.

SUNNY SENSEX DAYS: HOW FAR AWAY

Sensex is below 16K after half a year, inflation crossed past the crucial 5%, Karat and party drawing attention with pre-election gimmick, UPA is in election mood handing over soaps and above all--- the fears of recession in USA is catching up. It is mesh in American job market, there is an unexpected drop of payroll. It is now in air that the total credits related write off will be in the range of $ 1 trillion. The economy massacre is now a global phenomenon initiated in North America.

But the fall of Indian Stock Market is hardest amongst peers.

The Sensex has lost 21% in 2008, but still the average price earning multiple of Sensex stocks is still at 21.58. China ranks over us theirs at 36.03 after a fall of 13.6% in 2008. In the same time Hang Seng dropped 16.5%, Kospi by 11.6% and Japan Nikkei by 5.8%.

The technical analysts are most worried lot, both the key indices Sensex and Nifty have crossed the crucial 50 week moving averages indicating an onset of bear phase of our market.

Why we are going down faster than other markets, probably due to more inflow of FII money to India compared to other markets last year. So money will head out in tough times. The more money came to our market as it presented a better earning potential.

The robust earning potential can not go wrong as drastically and at such a short time frame as our market is now presenting before us. So probably Indian stock market is more attractive now.

So it is a buy time for small investors! ! ! !

No, with another very strong NO.

Markets are mostly driven by sentiment. Right now the sentiments of investors are abysmally low; it does not appear to me that it will improve so fast at least in India. No sensible investors will go for market till political situation of left vs. others of UPA stabilizes.

Wait till appropriate time (Do not rush), have some money in pocket then go for a short term kill.

POWER STOCK: RELIANCE POWER AND AFTER

Many investors walked through the Dalal Street and many an event happened in the background after the mega IPO of Reliance Power. It was an epoch making issue, investors of all hues ignoring all boundaries made it a point to invest in this offer. The power sector is the most happening sector right now and in the days to come, it held out much promise. In one of my earlier blogs (link) I discussed the issue as I was sure the issue will be a block buster and only a few will repeat its performance in future. I am still bullish in power sector in Indian context. (Earlier Popular Blogs link1, link2)

It is still a mystery what followed just prior to and after listing of the issue. We saw the melt down of Indian stock market, pundits tried to find out reasons, and as usual it is always easier to find the exact reason after any mishap. Post mortem report-"weak global cues". But interestingly some HNI and Institutional investors off loaded their holding of the issue just like a hot potato from their hand.

All of a sudden, few pundits suddenly discovered power stocks in India are over valued; so far we along with the same set of pundits were over optimistic in this sector. Now, many small investors panicked and sold off their holdings.

It seemed to me as a well orchested event that followed one after another in a systematic way. Whatever it may be, but it was successful, many small investors who invested in the issue with their hard earned money and some even with borrowed fund sold off their holdings and incurred heavy loss.

Should we pass on the blame to the promoter of the issue? Probably not, ADAG tried their best to allot shares to all small investors, (fifteen, sixteen shares) we are not complaining.

But the recent positive news of bonus shares, to make up the loss of investors, is laudable. The news also boosted the stock link. With this particular small gesture ADAG showed how they care for their investors. It also shows that they are bold enough to admit that may be their pricing of the stock was high.

Will it be very high expectation for the small investors to have such gestures from the houses of repute in future? May be ADAG set a high standard to emulate for all business houses.

IS INDIAN STOCK MARKET BEING MANIPULATED?

“The present slide of Indian stock market is due to global cues”, the market pundits are saying. By the very word “global cues” they are hinting to the “recession” of North American economy. All the major markets, including the robust emerging markets are showing weakness, and many are even hinting that the bears are taking over from the bulls.

To give a loose definition of recession: it is a contraction of economic activities spreading more than just a few months and becomes evident within a few months from the onset of it. The complex web of financial world which connects the world’s market makes it difficult to predict how the US recession will affect a particular market. So, generally many theories fly around. It is easier to press the panic button by one and for all. We have seen that rumors gain more ground than in normal condition.

Now we will come to know the “theory of decoupling of economies” will prove its mantle, as is being professed by many economists. But it seems the pillars of market are developing cracks, and may be it will be too late to welcome the onset of so called “decoupling of economies”.

Not going to financial theories and jargons, we should remember that the small investors are bleeding and the loss is far greater for small investors as they are not equipped to deal with falling market.

I always had some hunch of suspecting about the manipulation of our market by some unscrupulous operators. This particular view is probably shared by most of the small investors. We all will welcome the Regulator SEBI to play their positive role in this kind of manipulation if there is any.

Recently I have come across an interesting blog, which I think those who have the lingering doubts on market manipulation should go through it. LINK.

Can we do anything more than keeping our finger crossed anticipating the rebound of our market after the Budget session of Parliament?

BUDGET 2008-09: POWER STOCKS

If you have noticed that before every budget the fertilizer stocks goes up anticipating some kind of package from Government. Generally all agriculture-based industries expect some kind of tax soap from the central budget. In most cases the budget addressed the expectations in the form of subsidies and tax cuts. And these measures helped our agriculture to arrive at where it is today.

As we are ushering our country to “Developed Economy”, it is the time to set our priority in some more areas too. The infrastructure sector needs financing to speed up the developmental activities. The success of Government is measured by good governance. Good governance includes the facilities provided to the citizens. The recent Gujarat election showcased the importance of good governance or development, to the political parties. With the developing economy, the common people expect basic infrastructure/facilities, and probably will shun the divisive politics the parties are now practicing.

Ours is power starved country, even with all out effort it will take some time to fill the gap of demand and supply. The power sector is targeting an increase of 78,500 mw in generating capacity during the 11th Plan (2207-2012) and the overall funding requirement will be Rs. 10,60,000 crore. It will be Herculean task to raise that much amount even with the proposed Tax-free Power Bonds, Power Vikash Patra and disinvestment of public sector power companies. The participation of private sector is of paramount importance to achieve the objective, the VC s and PE funds should be encouraged with additional tax benefits.

With the above in view the most likely gainers will be the power sector stocks. There should be secular growth in the sector and the growth should encompass the capital good companies manufacturing power equipment. The story has relevance and is already established by the eager participation in the recent Reliance Power IPO.

I am as always very bullish in this sector (link, link, link) and believe that this is the sector which will provide some silver linings in the dark cloud of overall gloomy picture of Indian stock market.

It is now the duty of small investor to do some research and pick the power stocks which will provide excellent growth opportunity.

NORTH AMERICAN SLUMP AND TWO STOCKS OF MY FANCY

The news of economic slump or the recession in North American market is probably the most dreaded word in world economic order. No body can ignore the huge impact of North American Market though few may try to wish it away. The slide of today’s market is the knee-jerk reaction by the world stock market on the latest assessment of situation over there. The situation will remain grim for some more time and probably there will not be any positive trigger for some more time if we believe the pundits and fund houses.

The situation may not be as bad, the overseas fund especially the North American funds should come out as a result of the recession and it should come to Emerging Markets and a major share will come to Indian stock market.

Indian domestic market is also large enough to sustain of its own. Imagine the crores of consumers; they can drive the economy forward. Luckily we did not become an export dependent/oriented economy though we strived to become one.

Anyway let’s discuss one stock “YES BANK” which caught my fancy recently, though I was very much aware of it and kept in my radar for a long time. But somehow it did not follow it up.

The stock has high return on equity, high growth and zero NPLs. The unique business model of the Bank presents promises for future growth. Detailed report is available in this link.

Another stock is GMR Infra, market lowered premium on this stock after its announcement of overseas acquisition. I am bullish on this stock and I think it is a good buy below hundred and seventy buck with a horizon of one year minimum. The analysis of the stock is available from the same link above.

The last correction and the topsy-turvy-yo-yo have reconfirmed my belief in profit booking.

MAKING MONEY IN INDIAN STOCK MARKET

"The market may test the last bottom again", a stern warning from different quarters.
"Stay away from market till it stabilizes. The market is under bearish fever." warning from another source.
"One should not buy in a falling market" - all the above warnings are from respected houses and pundits, when the market goes down.

"Ours is growth story", "difficult to copy our business model", "market is insulated from the rest of the world" and so on all the positive thinking from the same set of houses and pundits when our market was going up.

Why the contradiction of finding darkness in a lighted room? Very high level of spiritual intelligence?

To me the above is due to the heavy stakes the market pundits and fund houses have in the market. So they flounder and panick at the drop of a hat, and we have seen the grim faces of them in the TV screen recently. The same grim, smileless, serious faces in the TV which makes a mountain out of a mole hill everytime the market goes down.

Their heavy accent and drooping eyes make the small investors more nourvous, but they donot sell our stakes as fast as they advice and themselves do. We, small investors have our sweet time gap of selling and buying. And it is for various obvious reasons. We have experienced in most cases sweet time gap of selling and buying benefits us. Panick selling and buying are not for small investors.

We still make money and we take the correction as an opportunity to buy where-ever we zero in and whatever small fund we may have.

Can anybody lose money in a long time bull market.

PREPARE FOR PICKING STOCKS

It is always difficult to be sure in stock market. The days before, when I did put down my opinion as “it is probably not the right time to pick up stock for small investors”( LINK), many of my friends were at serious difference with me.

I had my own reasons to come up with a statement like that.

As always the small investors tend to pick up stocks at higher price. How many of us could pick up our stocks at bottom, yesterday we came to know about the turn around of the market a tad later, by the time, it wheezed past many a miles, certainly we lost some good ground.

But again, the yesterday’s rally was the turn around of the market?

Probably not, the market again went down today for some reason that we could not think of. It seems the market will behave in weird way for some more time.
Or to me, till the liquidity re-injected from the refunds of Reliance Power IPO. That means after a week time. We can wait for some more time till a clear picture.

There are many a stocks which are at very attractive price right now. But the stocks which were at their best before the slide may not go back to the original position at the same rapid stride. History has many instances. Zoom your attention to the stocks with good fundamentals and which has prospects to grow, stock market always pays premium to growth story.

I have identified few stocks for picking up when the market stabilizes, but again I am suffering from liquidity crunch like most small investors.

Powergrid

GMR infra

PetronetLNG

ONGC

IFCI

RNRL

Nagarjuna Fertilizer

RPL

May be it is the right time to buy as per the market pundits, but listen to your inner self too. Most of the time, in such situation the gut-feelings presents the answer.

The loss or gain is yours, so nobody is going to shoulder responsibility but everybody will claim credits.

DO NOT BUY: WAIT FOR SOME MORE TIME

The present fall of Indian stock market is so violent and vicious it forced me out of my slumber of so called bloggers block. The sudden and completely unanticipated tanking of the market is the result of many factors and the factors were cumulative. That is the reason of this violent fall trailing with some bloody aftermath after every fall.

I was shivering in front of my computer when I saw the freefall of the market as if there is no bottom, interestingly similar feelings was there when the market was going up at a frenetic pace (my earlier blog). Such wild movement of the market is definitely not good for the small investors.

But market reign supreme. The market is very vindictive in the hands of market operators. Probably it calls for proactive Regulators which do not yield to the stage managed hulla-bol of unscrupulous element.

Probably, after a long time, the market is reinventing value, and discarding momentum. In that case what will be our next logical step to rise like Phoenix from the ashes of our portfolios?
Should we cherry-pick some good mid cap stocks, large cap stocks, dividend paying stock and what not at some attractive price as some experts are dishing out their advice.
(Sometime I can not stand some experts who pose as Mr. Know-all and have some preconceived ideas which in most cases turn out to be wrong, but never accepted it. aka. ONGC, RNRL, L&T haters )

For me sit tight and watch is the best policy for the time being and buy my stock only after the market turns around from the bottom of this abyss.

I am very much sure we have a bull market ahead of us and may be these developments are for the best interest of us.

STOCKS FOR 2008: CALLS FOR REALIGNING STRATEGY

It was interesting to note the following ten top performing stocks in 2007. Link- Time-Blog.

Inner Mongolia Yitai Coal Co. Ltd., China, 1017%
Jai Corp. Ltd., India, 877%
Reliance Natural Resources Ltd., India, 823%
Ispat Industries Ltd., India, 742%J
indal Steel & Power Ltd., India, 664%
Essar Oil Ltd., India, 570%
Shougang Concord Int'l Enterprises Co. Ltd., Hong Kong, 534%
China National Building Material Co. Ltd., China, 496%
Lanco Infratech Ltd., India, 487%
Adani Enterprises Ltd., India, 467%

Surprised? Let me quote from the same source that out of hundred top performing stocks in 2007, fortyone are from India.

We are extremely bullish in India story and the above is just another support to our bullish outlook. We are an emerging market, and we have many hidden gems whose earning potential is not yet fully exposed. Above all , we have our unique stock/financial market which has a judicious mixture of domestic and foreign earning potentials.

But still, it may not be possible to repeat this kind of extraordinary feat year after year. To sustain similar kind of growth to our portfolios, it certainly calls for realigning of strategy and to have a peek into the minds of market pundits. Some good prescriptions of stocks for the year 2008 are already doing rounds in the world of investors. These prescriptions if you look at them have their own merits. These suggestions at times go terribly wrong leaving the investors high and dry. So, small investors are to apply their own discretion.

I personally liked few suggestions and these may be used as guideline for framing strategy for next year.

Business-standard: Some picks which does not need much expertise, still should reaffirm our faith in known stocks.

Moneycontrol.com: Mainly observations from Pundits. Interesting reading, for the contradictions.

DeadPresident: The most interesting, stock selection by mortals, must read page.

Business Today (Print edition) has also published their list of companies for the year 2008.

Happy New Year.