CAPITAL GOODS STOCKS: FULL OF PROMISES

One should have presence in stock market in a sector which is relevant and have the potential to grow aggressively in short and medium term. And icing on the cake will be if one can pick up stocks in that sector at an attractive value. The above is the most ideal situation for any investor.

The renewed emphasis on Indian infrastructure sector is noticeable in recent past, and the capital goods stocks are reaping maximum benefits. They have ever increasing order books as the result of overall well being of Indian economy. The strong quarterly numbers in this sector confirms that the general concern of this sector like execution risk, momentum of order book and funding will not be problem in foreseeable distance. We should not forget, we are targeting 9% GDP growth in the 11th Five Year Plan.

I have identified some stocks which in all probability will be the future leaders in capital good sector. The large caps like L&T, BHEL, Suzlon Energy are already been in the radar of most of the small investors.

The strong momentum of some visible mid caps is noticeable; Thermax, Punj Llyod, Cummins, Siemens, Alfa Laval etc are holding good promises.

Now for small investors let’s go back to first para of this blog: to pick up the selected capital good stocks at attractive value. Stock market is full of surprises, nobody is sure when the stocks will be presented to us on a platter to our likings. But can we pick them at that opportunate moment? I am not sure, downward price of any stock makes us doubting Thomas, and we miss the opportunities.

Let’s be prepared and not miss any opportunity. These stocks will make our portfolio richer.

BIG OPERATORS VIS-À-VIS SMALL INVESTORS

Though the term “Operator” does not seem right for all high net worth investors or institutional investors, the term somehow stuck to them. They have the capacity to manipulate the market. They can artificially jack a stock up or dump it down the drain and that is for anybody’s guess. If they choose to operate in cartel they can manipulate the whole market. We have the terms Bear Cartel and Bull Operator in capital markets.

The recent additions to the term “Operator” are Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and Hedge Funds. When they come; they come in swarms and when they go, go out in swarms. These dangerous/vicious Operators can even ruin the economy of a country if the regulators are not careful enough. The established cartels and regular Operator treat them in awe. They have enormous money power and very well designed market operation employing best brains, which can upset any apple cart. There are lots of stories floating around in market, how so and so were really upset and had to gulp down some bitter pills against their very will. At times; it seems to be some kind of poetic justice meted out for some unjust operations affecting the Really Small and Helpless Investors (RSHI) that was carried out some years/months/days earlier.

The small investors are helpless spectators of the drama. The intelligent ones utilize the tide and reap the benefits. But most jumps into the arena a bit late and sadly have to converts their trade into investment with some real long horizon (*). My policy is to be the spectator and not try to be intelligent. I will invest only after studying the script and invest in them if the script can satisfy my basic requirements of sound fundamentals and low P/E and good earnings. (Change of strategy!!)

Cummins India is coming back to news as some Broker house has put it into buy; probably now it is making good chart patterns. I still have the opinion that the script has potential to go further up and may touch new highs, though I had come out of it as I did not had enough space for profit booking. It is still buy in correction.(*)

The TCS result has put some interest back into IT space. The IT picture seems to be gloomy in near term, but Indian IT Companies have the dominance and enough fire power to pull their act together again. I had a long night on Sunday, and decided to stay put in HCL Technology at least till result. My gut feeling says it will break the resistance of INR 350 in near term, I repeat that is gut feeling only.

I have two stocks in mind which may offer some short/medium term trading opportunity.

Centurion Bank of Punjab: Sometime unreasonable P/E defies justification if good stories are anticipated.

JBF Industries: May be another story of pulling the act together.

Both stories are touch and go. Careful study will be required.