Google has introduced "Google Mobile Search" through SMS from your mobile.
Google says "Get cricket scores, Indian Railways train schedules & ticket status, horoscopes, movie showtimes, restaurant information and more ...all through SMS on your phone."
Note: No premium charge for the search unlike other providers, only standard SMS charge.
Try the following search:
Reliance quote
SMS to 9-77-33-00000
You will get an SMS almost immediately as follows:
Stock:
500325 (Reliance Industries Ltd)
1184.00 (+43.00/3.80%)
Happy searching.
Go to the link for more informations: Google Mobile-SMS
Showing posts with label Indian stock market. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Indian stock market. Show all posts
19 November, 2008
18 November, 2008
STILL AT PE MULTIPLE OF THREE DIGITS
Are there still some equities with PE multiple of theree digits even after the mayhem of stock market?
Yes, there are. Some equities are still commanding that much of confidence (?) from investors. When most of the front line companies have corrected themselves to reasonable PE, the somewhat obscure or traders favourite companies are still there at that unreasonably high position.
Followings are few companies
Mineral and Metal Trading Corp.
Essar Oil
Reliance Natural Resources
Ispat Industries
It is hard to find justification for such high valuations.
More reading at Link The Economic Times
23 October, 2008
WHERE TO: INDIAN STOCK MARKET?
We dangerously hovering in some place from where we can see neither upside nor downside?
The statement from our PM, "cloudy sky", not that confident Rakesh Jhunjhunwala in CNN IBN yesternight and global scenerio has made me to reconsider my decision to be bull at least for near term.
Where to Indian Stock Market?
We small investors has more responsibility to protect our capital than to multiply it. Withdrow, your capital but keep your profit part there well parked in good stock.
What comes down will definitely go up. It is only matter of time.
The statement from our PM, "cloudy sky", not that confident Rakesh Jhunjhunwala in CNN IBN yesternight and global scenerio has made me to reconsider my decision to be bull at least for near term.
Where to Indian Stock Market?
We small investors has more responsibility to protect our capital than to multiply it. Withdrow, your capital but keep your profit part there well parked in good stock.
What comes down will definitely go up. It is only matter of time.
16 October, 2008
MARKET FALACIES-1
It seems that it is almost sure that recession has set in world economy. If we consider all the factors India should be well insulated from the global turmoil. Our semi socialistic principles is saving us from the global downturn. We may be a little edgy right now but reasons will prevail very soon.
Will the Indian Stock Market will recover and prove the theory of decoupling of economies is right?
Though I still beleive the theory was a offshoot of a clever market manipulator. This one of the biggest Market falacies.
My earlier blog Posts. Link 1, 2, 3.
Will the Indian Stock Market will recover and prove the theory of decoupling of economies is right?
Though I still beleive the theory was a offshoot of a clever market manipulator. This one of the biggest Market falacies.
My earlier blog Posts. Link 1, 2, 3.
13 February, 2008
IS INDIAN STOCK MARKET BEING MANIPULATED?
“The present slide of Indian stock market is due to global cues”, the market pundits are saying. By the very word “global cues” they are hinting to the “recession” of North American economy. All the major markets, including the robust emerging markets are showing weakness, and many are even hinting that the bears are taking over from the bulls.
To give a loose definition of recession: it is a contraction of economic activities spreading more than just a few months and becomes evident within a few months from the onset of it. The complex web of financial world which connects the world’s market makes it difficult to predict how the US recession will affect a particular market. So, generally many theories fly around. It is easier to press the panic button by one and for all. We have seen that rumors gain more ground than in normal condition.
Now we will come to know the “theory of decoupling of economies” will prove its mantle, as is being professed by many economists. But it seems the pillars of market are developing cracks, and may be it will be too late to welcome the onset of so called “decoupling of economies”.
Not going to financial theories and jargons, we should remember that the small investors are bleeding and the loss is far greater for small investors as they are not equipped to deal with falling market.
I always had some hunch of suspecting about the manipulation of our market by some unscrupulous operators. This particular view is probably shared by most of the small investors. We all will welcome the Regulator SEBI to play their positive role in this kind of manipulation if there is any.
Recently I have come across an interesting blog, which I think those who have the lingering doubts on market manipulation should go through it. LINK.
To give a loose definition of recession: it is a contraction of economic activities spreading more than just a few months and becomes evident within a few months from the onset of it. The complex web of financial world which connects the world’s market makes it difficult to predict how the US recession will affect a particular market. So, generally many theories fly around. It is easier to press the panic button by one and for all. We have seen that rumors gain more ground than in normal condition.
Now we will come to know the “theory of decoupling of economies” will prove its mantle, as is being professed by many economists. But it seems the pillars of market are developing cracks, and may be it will be too late to welcome the onset of so called “decoupling of economies”.
Not going to financial theories and jargons, we should remember that the small investors are bleeding and the loss is far greater for small investors as they are not equipped to deal with falling market.
I always had some hunch of suspecting about the manipulation of our market by some unscrupulous operators. This particular view is probably shared by most of the small investors. We all will welcome the Regulator SEBI to play their positive role in this kind of manipulation if there is any.
Recently I have come across an interesting blog, which I think those who have the lingering doubts on market manipulation should go through it. LINK.
Can we do anything more than keeping our finger crossed anticipating the rebound of our market after the Budget session of Parliament?
24 January, 2008
PREPARE FOR PICKING STOCKS
It is always difficult to be sure in stock market. The days before, when I did put down my opinion as “it is probably not the right time to pick up stock for small investors”( LINK), many of my friends were at serious difference with me.
I had my own reasons to come up with a statement like that.
As always the small investors tend to pick up stocks at higher price. How many of us could pick up our stocks at bottom, yesterday we came to know about the turn around of the market a tad later, by the time, it wheezed past many a miles, certainly we lost some good ground.
But again, the yesterday’s rally was the turn around of the market?
Probably not, the market again went down today for some reason that we could not think of. It seems the market will behave in weird way for some more time.
Or to me, till the liquidity re-injected from the refunds of Reliance Power IPO. That means after a week time. We can wait for some more time till a clear picture.
There are many a stocks which are at very attractive price right now. But the stocks which were at their best before the slide may not go back to the original position at the same rapid stride. History has many instances. Zoom your attention to the stocks with good fundamentals and which has prospects to grow, stock market always pays premium to growth story.
I have identified few stocks for picking up when the market stabilizes, but again I am suffering from liquidity crunch like most small investors.
22 January, 2008
DO NOT BUY: WAIT FOR SOME MORE TIME
The present fall of Indian stock market is so violent and vicious it forced me out of my slumber of so called bloggers block. The sudden and completely unanticipated tanking of the market is the result of many factors and the factors were cumulative. That is the reason of this violent fall trailing with some bloody aftermath after every fall.
I was shivering in front of my computer when I saw the freefall of the market as if there is no bottom, interestingly similar feelings was there when the market was going up at a frenetic pace (my earlier blog). Such wild movement of the market is definitely not good for the small investors.
But market reign supreme. The market is very vindictive in the hands of market operators. Probably it calls for proactive Regulators which do not yield to the stage managed hulla-bol of unscrupulous element.
Probably, after a long time, the market is reinventing value, and discarding momentum. In that case what will be our next logical step to rise like Phoenix from the ashes of our portfolios?
Should we cherry-pick some good mid cap stocks, large cap stocks, dividend paying stock and what not at some attractive price as some experts are dishing out their advice.
(Sometime I can not stand some experts who pose as Mr. Know-all and have some preconceived ideas which in most cases turn out to be wrong, but never accepted it. aka. ONGC, RNRL, L&T haters )
For me sit tight and watch is the best policy for the time being and buy my stock only after the market turns around from the bottom of this abyss.
I am very much sure we have a bull market ahead of us and may be these developments are for the best interest of us.
I was shivering in front of my computer when I saw the freefall of the market as if there is no bottom, interestingly similar feelings was there when the market was going up at a frenetic pace (my earlier blog). Such wild movement of the market is definitely not good for the small investors.
But market reign supreme. The market is very vindictive in the hands of market operators. Probably it calls for proactive Regulators which do not yield to the stage managed hulla-bol of unscrupulous element.
Probably, after a long time, the market is reinventing value, and discarding momentum. In that case what will be our next logical step to rise like Phoenix from the ashes of our portfolios?
Should we cherry-pick some good mid cap stocks, large cap stocks, dividend paying stock and what not at some attractive price as some experts are dishing out their advice.
(Sometime I can not stand some experts who pose as Mr. Know-all and have some preconceived ideas which in most cases turn out to be wrong, but never accepted it. aka. ONGC, RNRL, L&T haters )
For me sit tight and watch is the best policy for the time being and buy my stock only after the market turns around from the bottom of this abyss.
I am very much sure we have a bull market ahead of us and may be these developments are for the best interest of us.
16 December, 2007
RELIANCE POWER IPO: STOCK FOR SMALL INVESTORS
The plan to list Reliance Power Limited was a welcome step from R-ADA group and is eagerly anticipated by small investors. The red herring prospectus for the issue was submitted to SEBI on October 3. The company is supposed to sell 11.5% of post paid up capital of the company, which media reports have said may raise $2.8 billion. Probably it will be India’s biggest IPO. Reliance Power also has in interests in infrastructure, telecoms and financial sector. ADAG holds the company through various group companies including Reliance Energy which holds around 50% of the stake.
According to media report around 30% of the shares will be for retail clients, 10% will be for HNIs and rest 60% will be for Institutional Investors. There are reports that the face value of the stock may be of RS 10/- instead of Rs 2/- as initially proposed. link. The issue will definitely require the support from FIIs and DIIs. Some sources informs that the issue may be delayed by some more time. Link.
www.bsensedaily.com has furnished a list of projects currently handled by Reliance Power Limited as follows:
• Rosa Phase I, a 600 MW coal-fired project in Uttar Pradesh scheduled to be commissioned in March 2010.
• Rosa Phase II, a 600 MW expansion of Rosa Phase I which is scheduled to be commissioned in September 2010.
• Butibori, a 300 MW coal-fired project scheduled to be commissioned in June 2010.
• Sasan 3,960MW UMPPs promoted and awarded by the Government of India is expected to be the largest pithead coal-fired power project at a single location in
• Shahapur, a 4,000 MW coal-fired(1,200 MW) and combined cycle gas-fired (2,800 MW) project in Shahapur, scheduled to be commissioned in March 2011.
• Urthing Sobla (400 MW), a run-of-the-river hydroelectric project, located on the
Five other projects—the gas-fired Dadri project (7,480 MW), the coal-fired MP Power project (3,960 MW) and three run-of-the-river hydroelectric projects, Siyom (1,000 MW), Tato II (700 MW) and Kalai II (1,200 MW).
There are some controversies too. ADAG has alleged some market forces working against the mega issue and trying to thwart it. Link. REL investors are unhappy to find that no approval was sought from them for listing the issue as it has direct bearing on the income of REL. and so on. There is already premium on this issue in the grey market and some of the market operators are making losses, as the issue is delayed for various reasons but the grey market premium on the issue is increasing steadily. Link: Reliance Power IPO clouds grey market.
09 December, 2007
CAPITAL GOODS STOCKS: FULL OF PROMISES
One should have presence in stock market in a sector which is relevant and have the potential to grow aggressively in short and medium term. And icing on the cake will be if one can pick up stocks in that sector at an attractive value. The above is the most ideal situation for any investor.
The renewed emphasis on Indian infrastructure sector is noticeable in recent past, and the capital goods stocks are reaping maximum benefits. They have ever increasing order books as the result of overall well being of Indian economy. The strong quarterly numbers in this sector confirms that the general concern of this sector like execution risk, momentum of order book and funding will not be problem in foreseeable distance. We should not forget, we are targeting 9% GDP growth in the 11th Five Year Plan.
I have identified some stocks which in all probability will be the future leaders in capital good sector. The large caps like L&T, BHEL, Suzlon Energy are already been in the radar of most of the small investors.
The strong momentum of some visible mid caps is noticeable; Thermax, Punj Llyod, Cummins, Siemens, Alfa Laval etc are holding good promises.
Now for small investors let’s go back to first para of this blog: to pick up the selected capital good stocks at attractive value. Stock market is full of surprises, nobody is sure when the stocks will be presented to us on a platter to our likings. But can we pick them at that opportunate moment? I am not sure, downward price of any stock makes us doubting Thomas, and we miss the opportunities.
Let’s be prepared and not miss any opportunity. These stocks will make our portfolio richer.
The renewed emphasis on Indian infrastructure sector is noticeable in recent past, and the capital goods stocks are reaping maximum benefits. They have ever increasing order books as the result of overall well being of Indian economy. The strong quarterly numbers in this sector confirms that the general concern of this sector like execution risk, momentum of order book and funding will not be problem in foreseeable distance. We should not forget, we are targeting 9% GDP growth in the 11th Five Year Plan.
I have identified some stocks which in all probability will be the future leaders in capital good sector. The large caps like L&T, BHEL, Suzlon Energy are already been in the radar of most of the small investors.
The strong momentum of some visible mid caps is noticeable; Thermax, Punj Llyod, Cummins, Siemens, Alfa Laval etc are holding good promises.
Now for small investors let’s go back to first para of this blog: to pick up the selected capital good stocks at attractive value. Stock market is full of surprises, nobody is sure when the stocks will be presented to us on a platter to our likings. But can we pick them at that opportunate moment? I am not sure, downward price of any stock makes us doubting Thomas, and we miss the opportunities.
Let’s be prepared and not miss any opportunity. These stocks will make our portfolio richer.
05 December, 2007
POWER STOCKS: IDENTIFY THE WINNERS-II
There is a lot of hullabaloo about the valuation of power stocks in the Indian stock market. Being bullish (earlier post: here and here) in this sector made me to have a rethink. The power stocks passed a long period of sluggishness due to some archaic laws . There is a severe shortage of power in our country and with very conservative estimate the supply shortage to demand will remain until for at least another decade. Now government is putting emphasis on infrastructure and power. Logically power stocks are best bet to invest with a long term horizon.
The valuation of REL, NTPC, Power Grid, Tata Power are in the forties of their annualized sustainable earnings. Neyveli Lignite Corporation, Gujarat Industries Power Company, Lanco Infratech and GVK Power have higher valuations than a year ago. Power equipment manufacturers like BHEL, Cummins, Crompton Greaves are also have high valuation.
It seems that the power sector is in a different platform right now, which reminds me of the IT stocks a year back. The IT stocks justified their high PE with sustained earnings for a long period. Can the power stocks repeat the feat of IT stocks? Debatable! May be power stocks may correct to some extend in the days to come and to me that will be an opportunity to pick up some value stocks for some long term investment.
Some really attractive IPOs are coming in this sector. Reliance Power, NHPC and REC will present small investors a chance to pick them up at good valuations.
What about the recent listing Surjyachakra Power and IndoWind Energy? Surjyachakra Power has a tie up with a Chinese company to for a coal-fired project in Orissa. They are also good pick for small investors as they still have to find their groove in Market.
One should not worry for the power stocks in their portfolios as they are long term winner and outperformers in Indian Stock Market.
The valuation of REL, NTPC, Power Grid, Tata Power are in the forties of their annualized sustainable earnings. Neyveli Lignite Corporation, Gujarat Industries Power Company, Lanco Infratech and GVK Power have higher valuations than a year ago. Power equipment manufacturers like BHEL, Cummins, Crompton Greaves are also have high valuation.
It seems that the power sector is in a different platform right now, which reminds me of the IT stocks a year back. The IT stocks justified their high PE with sustained earnings for a long period. Can the power stocks repeat the feat of IT stocks? Debatable! May be power stocks may correct to some extend in the days to come and to me that will be an opportunity to pick up some value stocks for some long term investment.
Some really attractive IPOs are coming in this sector. Reliance Power, NHPC and REC will present small investors a chance to pick them up at good valuations.
What about the recent listing Surjyachakra Power and IndoWind Energy? Surjyachakra Power has a tie up with a Chinese company to for a coal-fired project in Orissa. They are also good pick for small investors as they still have to find their groove in Market.
One should not worry for the power stocks in their portfolios as they are long term winner and outperformers in Indian Stock Market.
22 November, 2007
DILEMMA FOR SMALL INVESTORS:
It seems that we lack confidence to see our market above 20,000 mark of Sensex. If we go anywhere near the mark, we simply falter and whimper back to the so called comfort level of some 18,000. Are we still lacking in the conviction of a strong matured Indian Stock Market, which is not dictated by Hangseng, FTSE or Dow as fast as it is doing right now. I agree that no market can be insulated against the development in overall world scenario, if we consider the superimposition of economies.
But if any market is to climb higher, the Indian stock market is the most obvious choice. (Link to earlier post: here, here) Probably even the congenial Bears will tell; right now we are in a very good phase of Bull Run as almost all factors are favouring it. (Link: here)
The present lowering of market has presented us with a good chance to pick up some stocks which were in our radar for some time, at attractive price. The momentum boys RNRL, RPL, Nagarjuna Fertiliser, Bongaigaon Refinery and a host of other stocks have came down to a comfortable level to pick up. Some bigger boys L&T, Reliance, REL, Punj Lloyd, RCOM, State Bank etc. are now in pick-able price.
No wonder market pundits welcome correction. Should we wait for this correction to be over or just pick them up like that? It is a million dollar question. If we cannot effort to spend time in front of a computer to pick up stocks at theoretically correct time: it is simply not possible. For somebody of my type, who has engaged in other important jobs and cannot effort to spend time in front of a computer, I think picking up stock at a price at my comfortable level is the best bet.
I am sure; anyway we are going to have our market at a higher level in near future.
Now a small stock-poem
My stock: I do not sell it
But if any market is to climb higher, the Indian stock market is the most obvious choice. (Link to earlier post: here, here) Probably even the congenial Bears will tell; right now we are in a very good phase of Bull Run as almost all factors are favouring it. (Link: here)
The present lowering of market has presented us with a good chance to pick up some stocks which were in our radar for some time, at attractive price. The momentum boys RNRL, RPL, Nagarjuna Fertiliser, Bongaigaon Refinery and a host of other stocks have came down to a comfortable level to pick up. Some bigger boys L&T, Reliance, REL, Punj Lloyd, RCOM, State Bank etc. are now in pick-able price.
No wonder market pundits welcome correction. Should we wait for this correction to be over or just pick them up like that? It is a million dollar question. If we cannot effort to spend time in front of a computer to pick up stocks at theoretically correct time: it is simply not possible. For somebody of my type, who has engaged in other important jobs and cannot effort to spend time in front of a computer, I think picking up stock at a price at my comfortable level is the best bet.
I am sure; anyway we are going to have our market at a higher level in near future.
Now a small stock-poem
My stock: I do not sell it
If my stock remains at level, I do not sell it,
I wait for my stock to react.
If my stock goes down, I do not sell it,
I should not book loss, I can wait for some more time.
If my stock goes up, I do not sell it,
My stock will go up still higher.
I have my disciplines, I keep that in my mind
But never to practice.
19 November, 2007
POWER STOCKS: IDENTIFY THE WINNERS
The buzz word in the Indian stock market at present is “Power”. Being bullish in Indian stock market, more so in the power sector (earlier post: Power shows: Market this week) made me to have a look in this particular direction.
The recently introduced BSE Power Index is just an indication of aspiration the market have in this particular sector. This sector was neglected so far due to some prevailing draconian rules. With the development of economy and overall living standards of our country, Government can’t effort to ignore this sector. Let’s have a look at those power stocks which had entered into Indian stock market this year
Power Finance Corporation
Power Grid Corporation
Surjyachakra Power
Indowind Energy
All have done well so far in the market for their unique business models. To me these four stocks are yet to have a proper valuation and so they still have some upside left to be realized. If we consider the demand supply mismatch of power in our country the power stocks are most likely to appreciate and be outperformers to index. We have already seen some actions in this sector.
Some real big players are poised to enter our stock market in near future. Entry of these companies will further strengthen this sector. The noticeable will be the followings:
Reliance Power
Rural Electrification Corp.
NHPC
BGR Energy
We already are in the midst of a very good Bull Run of our market. The market may correct itself in a stock specific way, every time after a very good run. The concern for small investors for a proper area to park their profit may well be answered by stocks in this particular sector.
A good selection of mid cap power stocks at this juncture may yield some multibaggers. Fundamentally good power stocks are for some really long time hold, at least for a decade or till the demand supply mismatch will be shorted out (till 2017 as per investment bank Artherstone).
The recently introduced BSE Power Index is just an indication of aspiration the market have in this particular sector. This sector was neglected so far due to some prevailing draconian rules. With the development of economy and overall living standards of our country, Government can’t effort to ignore this sector. Let’s have a look at those power stocks which had entered into Indian stock market this year
Power Finance Corporation
Power Grid Corporation
Surjyachakra Power
Indowind Energy
All have done well so far in the market for their unique business models. To me these four stocks are yet to have a proper valuation and so they still have some upside left to be realized. If we consider the demand supply mismatch of power in our country the power stocks are most likely to appreciate and be outperformers to index. We have already seen some actions in this sector.
Some real big players are poised to enter our stock market in near future. Entry of these companies will further strengthen this sector. The noticeable will be the followings:
Reliance Power
Rural Electrification Corp.
NHPC
BGR Energy
We already are in the midst of a very good Bull Run of our market. The market may correct itself in a stock specific way, every time after a very good run. The concern for small investors for a proper area to park their profit may well be answered by stocks in this particular sector.
A good selection of mid cap power stocks at this juncture may yield some multibaggers. Fundamentally good power stocks are for some really long time hold, at least for a decade or till the demand supply mismatch will be shorted out (till 2017 as per investment bank Artherstone).
14 November, 2007
THE GREAT INDIAN BULL RUN
It seems that I am destined to miss the excitements of stock market during any of my hiatus from the blog to attend other engagements. The Sensex remained there at tantalizingly near 20,000 when I shined off, then it slided by around 2000 points for lack of cues. It made a resounding recovery of 924 points in a biggest single day rally to be there at its very correct place near 20,000. It reconfirmed my standing (my earlier popular blog: Should we buy stock now?) that there is still some time left for Bears to set in. For now it is the “Great Indian Bull Run”.
Market pundits always maintain, “bull markets don’t just die of old age, historically only one factor has terminated bull runs: rapidly rising interest rates. Bear markets occur when earnings collapse due to an economic recession, which in turn is brought about when real intereat rates cross the threshold of pain”. (Ruchir Sharma: The Sky Isn’t Falling –Yet, November 5, 2007, Newsweek)
To go by the above referred article there are still some way to go before the Indian Stock Market enters into the “bubble” territory. History shows the bubbles peaks when average stock price reach the level of 50-60 times projected earnings for the coming year. Some examples of bigger bubbles are NASDAQ in 1989 and Hong Kong market back in 1973, when the P/E ratio peaked at 55. The bubbles were busted by respective central banks by tightening measures.
Any tightening measure will result in slowing of overall economics of our country which the government will very reluctantly opt for, in all possibilities.
There are some theories floating around like “look beyond the index stocks”. This is a dangerous proposition to small investors as most of the small investors only look at the stock price movement, not beyond that. Some penny stocks are good bait for those unsuspecting small investors by those big great white sharks lurking in the deep blues of uncertainties. They should always value the fundamentals rather than unwanted tips from those uncertain sources.
A few issues back Outlook Money (15th October, 07) came up with nine good mid cap infrastructure stocks which seem to fit the bill for small investors. For small investors these stocks may be kept in their radar for picking up when the stock price and market allows picking (refer my earlier very popular blog: Waiting forever to be discovered by world). For our benefit let me note them down below:
Bharat Bijlee: Good order book and earning visibility.
Bharati Shipyard: Cost competitiveness results in better standings.
Era Infra Engg: Good project execution.
Hercules Hoists: Diverse Product Range in a modern manufacturing facility.
India Cement: Biggest cement manufacturer in South India.
Indo Tech Transformer: Impressive growth potential.
International combustion: Niche product range.
Paramount communication: May be the growth story to come next.
Voltamp Transformers: Should ride the infrastructure growth story.
In the mean time let us bask in the glory of Sensex Sun and as old adage says: make hey while the sun shines.
Market pundits always maintain, “bull markets don’t just die of old age, historically only one factor has terminated bull runs: rapidly rising interest rates. Bear markets occur when earnings collapse due to an economic recession, which in turn is brought about when real intereat rates cross the threshold of pain”. (Ruchir Sharma: The Sky Isn’t Falling –Yet, November 5, 2007, Newsweek)
To go by the above referred article there are still some way to go before the Indian Stock Market enters into the “bubble” territory. History shows the bubbles peaks when average stock price reach the level of 50-60 times projected earnings for the coming year. Some examples of bigger bubbles are NASDAQ in 1989 and Hong Kong market back in 1973, when the P/E ratio peaked at 55. The bubbles were busted by respective central banks by tightening measures.
Any tightening measure will result in slowing of overall economics of our country which the government will very reluctantly opt for, in all possibilities.
There are some theories floating around like “look beyond the index stocks”. This is a dangerous proposition to small investors as most of the small investors only look at the stock price movement, not beyond that. Some penny stocks are good bait for those unsuspecting small investors by those big great white sharks lurking in the deep blues of uncertainties. They should always value the fundamentals rather than unwanted tips from those uncertain sources.
A few issues back Outlook Money (15th October, 07) came up with nine good mid cap infrastructure stocks which seem to fit the bill for small investors. For small investors these stocks may be kept in their radar for picking up when the stock price and market allows picking (refer my earlier very popular blog: Waiting forever to be discovered by world). For our benefit let me note them down below:
Bharat Bijlee: Good order book and earning visibility.
Bharati Shipyard: Cost competitiveness results in better standings.
Era Infra Engg: Good project execution.
Hercules Hoists: Diverse Product Range in a modern manufacturing facility.
India Cement: Biggest cement manufacturer in South India.
Indo Tech Transformer: Impressive growth potential.
International combustion: Niche product range.
Paramount communication: May be the growth story to come next.
Voltamp Transformers: Should ride the infrastructure growth story.
In the mean time let us bask in the glory of Sensex Sun and as old adage says: make hey while the sun shines.
16 October, 2007
SENSEX : POISED FOR CORRECTION?
There are two developments which may effect the Indian stock market on 17 th October 2007.
Firstly official from the Ministry of Finance said that the recent inflow of foreign money into our market is due to "Inflows are high as foreign institutional investors find Indian shares attractive" and "It is also because of the interest rate differentials". Link: News.
This is a statement made to control the damage from the statement made by Finance Minister Mr. P. Chidambaram. Link: News, earlier post.
And secondly SEBI is trying to control of Participatory Note participation in our market. The P-note is a derivative product used by overseas operators to protect their identity and the ease of entering and existing any market. Mostly the P-note is used for short term investment in market.
Read SEBI's Paper on the P-note here.
Many pundits beleive that the recent bull run of our market is also fuelled by the P-note phenomena to some extend.
We should be prepared to any kind of market reaction for both the above developments.
Firstly official from the Ministry of Finance said that the recent inflow of foreign money into our market is due to "Inflows are high as foreign institutional investors find Indian shares attractive" and "It is also because of the interest rate differentials". Link: News.
This is a statement made to control the damage from the statement made by Finance Minister Mr. P. Chidambaram. Link: News, earlier post.
And secondly SEBI is trying to control of Participatory Note participation in our market. The P-note is a derivative product used by overseas operators to protect their identity and the ease of entering and existing any market. Mostly the P-note is used for short term investment in market.
Read SEBI's Paper on the P-note here.
Many pundits beleive that the recent bull run of our market is also fuelled by the P-note phenomena to some extend.
We should be prepared to any kind of market reaction for both the above developments.
15 October, 2007
CONTROL SENSEX: JUSTIFIED MOVE?
One week is a long time in stock market, I took a break for one week and it crossed two mile stones (1800 and 1900). Though I still believe Sensex is just another set of numbers, we have some emotional values attached to it. It was pleasant to find the power stocks are powering their way up. It seems there is no end to FII flows which reminds me of a magic trick we all enjoyed during our childhood, the never ending “Water of India”. Sensex is going to cross 20000 in this very run ("19,300" just another number). May be some correction is in its way. News report.
The sheer pace of market movement has some element of doubts; at least our Finance Minister Mr. P. Chidambaram believes so. At the summit of Hindustan Times he showed his reservations and suspicion on how the movement of Sensex sometimes surprised, and sometimes worried him. He talked about the ‘copious inflow of funds from a number of sources’. It is always better to be cautious. But what about too much of it? Agreed that at the helm of affairs he has some responsibilities, especially to those small investors who invest their ‘life’s in the market. But those words in a forum are not exactly what were expected from him, it is no less than manipulating the stock market, trying to stop the natural market movement. Another report in CNBC (Payal Bhattar) says the market regulatory bodies will have two sittings per month as against one earlier. It seems he is really concerned to find a skeleton in the cupboard. Though I have my own doubts on his suspicions I have no objection to the regulatory bodies to be proactive.
Some experts are sure the market movement is due to robustness of our economy and the checks our regulatory bodies have put in place, copious monies can not simply play any major role in market manipulations. It is also believed by major section of small investors that our stock market has started its movement only now and it has unbound potential to go up and up and up. Remember Mr. P. Chidambaram is an economist of his own repute, and there are lot many who shares in his above observations.
The market will go up, the bull run as we all believe is there to stay for some more times, still we are to go slow and not be that greedy to put our life’s into the market.
Check the Sensex graph, may be another correction is in its way.
Disclaimer: I am not a technical analyst.
The sheer pace of market movement has some element of doubts; at least our Finance Minister Mr. P. Chidambaram believes so. At the summit of Hindustan Times he showed his reservations and suspicion on how the movement of Sensex sometimes surprised, and sometimes worried him. He talked about the ‘copious inflow of funds from a number of sources’. It is always better to be cautious. But what about too much of it? Agreed that at the helm of affairs he has some responsibilities, especially to those small investors who invest their ‘life’s in the market. But those words in a forum are not exactly what were expected from him, it is no less than manipulating the stock market, trying to stop the natural market movement. Another report in CNBC (Payal Bhattar) says the market regulatory bodies will have two sittings per month as against one earlier. It seems he is really concerned to find a skeleton in the cupboard. Though I have my own doubts on his suspicions I have no objection to the regulatory bodies to be proactive.
Some experts are sure the market movement is due to robustness of our economy and the checks our regulatory bodies have put in place, copious monies can not simply play any major role in market manipulations. It is also believed by major section of small investors that our stock market has started its movement only now and it has unbound potential to go up and up and up. Remember Mr. P. Chidambaram is an economist of his own repute, and there are lot many who shares in his above observations.
The market will go up, the bull run as we all believe is there to stay for some more times, still we are to go slow and not be that greedy to put our life’s into the market.
Check the Sensex graph, may be another correction is in its way.
Disclaimer: I am not a technical analyst.
28 September, 2007
INDIAN STOCK MARKET: DEFYING LAW OF GRAVITY:
Many pundits are baffled to see the pace at which Indian market is going up. Surpassing 1000 Sensex points at a record time (6 days) and still the market is not showing any let up. The much predicted profit booking session on this Friday was found to be elusive. The market has some discerning buyers. But interestingly not many dead wood were floating around this time, it is a selective surge forward.
To me the Indian stock market is actually behaving as it should behave, going up. I have my reasons and I am giving you only three
1. The Indian stock market is still accounting for a small fraction what the overall Indian economy actually is. Imagine a few public sector companies listed in Stock market; here I am throwing only two among lots BSNL and Railways. We should not forget the small scale industries which are not only profit making but also contributing a good fraction to GNP. What about cottage industries, unorganized transport industries, distribution network and so on. There are still lots of spaces to spread our legs.
2. We Indians are used to play it safe; we have some good savings tucked in bank fixed deposits, insurances or small saving accounts which do not fetch substantial return. Imagine the Indians discover the potential of stock market; our regulatory bodies are in right direction to prove that stock market is also a viable media to save or grow even for small investors.
3. Most of the developed markets are in a shabby condition, the investors are not very comfortable there and they are coming in flocks to emerging condition. The growing interest of them in Indian stock market is evident in the present rally.
So what is the optimum speed our market should go up? At an average 100 points of Sensex per day or 50 points or even 250 points to make our pundits comfortable. No one can have an answer.
So let us stop being Faberish till our fear over take our greed and bask in the rays of rising Sensex sun.
To me the Indian stock market is actually behaving as it should behave, going up. I have my reasons and I am giving you only three
1. The Indian stock market is still accounting for a small fraction what the overall Indian economy actually is. Imagine a few public sector companies listed in Stock market; here I am throwing only two among lots BSNL and Railways. We should not forget the small scale industries which are not only profit making but also contributing a good fraction to GNP. What about cottage industries, unorganized transport industries, distribution network and so on. There are still lots of spaces to spread our legs.
2. We Indians are used to play it safe; we have some good savings tucked in bank fixed deposits, insurances or small saving accounts which do not fetch substantial return. Imagine the Indians discover the potential of stock market; our regulatory bodies are in right direction to prove that stock market is also a viable media to save or grow even for small investors.
3. Most of the developed markets are in a shabby condition, the investors are not very comfortable there and they are coming in flocks to emerging condition. The growing interest of them in Indian stock market is evident in the present rally.
So what is the optimum speed our market should go up? At an average 100 points of Sensex per day or 50 points or even 250 points to make our pundits comfortable. No one can have an answer.
So let us stop being Faberish till our fear over take our greed and bask in the rays of rising Sensex sun.
27 September, 2007
SPARK IN THE BANKING STOCKS-II
The recent news of ING Vysya trying to acquire stakes in Centurion Bank of Punjab and Kotak Bank and the subsequent denial (or no comment) from ING Vysya indicates that there are some activities going on in Indian Banking Sector. After some subdued session the Benkex is actively participating in the present rally. State bank of India is already shining with all the news of stock split, bonus and preferential allotment of shares. ICICI Bank is trading at all time high. The growing interest of foreign banks to have foothold in our capital market certainly needs some vehicle. The mid cap private banks are the best bet for them.
How and where the FIIs have their exposure is a fascinating study. I have come across such a study in the Hindu Businessline (link-here); it sported a table on some prominent FII moves. FIIs are following some stock specific strategy not the sector specific buying. However it was noted the FIIs avoiding the oil refining sector and is going slow in pharma and health care sector (exception Glenmark, Glaxo and Nicholas Piramal).
Coming back to our context the FIIs raised their stake in Yes Bank from 15.3% in June-06 to 52.51% in june-07, i.e. a raise of 37.21%. It certainly is a substantial increase. Yes Bank has already established a niche model of banking which is different from other banks and seems it has all the support from Rabo Bank. Mr. Rana Kapoor is an ex-Rabo Bank Executive and Rabo Bank has a substantial stake. The above presents some rosy picture for the stock holders of Yes Bank.
The Centurion Bank of Punjab and Kotak Bank will definitely qualify to get a hold from Brokers if not outperformer.
Earlier post: SPARK IN THE BANKING STOCKS
How and where the FIIs have their exposure is a fascinating study. I have come across such a study in the Hindu Businessline (link-here); it sported a table on some prominent FII moves. FIIs are following some stock specific strategy not the sector specific buying. However it was noted the FIIs avoiding the oil refining sector and is going slow in pharma and health care sector (exception Glenmark, Glaxo and Nicholas Piramal).
Coming back to our context the FIIs raised their stake in Yes Bank from 15.3% in June-06 to 52.51% in june-07, i.e. a raise of 37.21%. It certainly is a substantial increase. Yes Bank has already established a niche model of banking which is different from other banks and seems it has all the support from Rabo Bank. Mr. Rana Kapoor is an ex-Rabo Bank Executive and Rabo Bank has a substantial stake. The above presents some rosy picture for the stock holders of Yes Bank.
The Centurion Bank of Punjab and Kotak Bank will definitely qualify to get a hold from Brokers if not outperformer.
Earlier post: SPARK IN THE BANKING STOCKS
24 September, 2007
GREAT MONTHLY RETURN IN STOCK MARKET
It is heartening to see the present Bull Run of Indian Stock Market propelled some stocks to new highs. I have come across the following table in the Paisa Builder portal of IDBI, and found the portal is beautifully designed and many features are free (link here). Only hic-up for me till now, is the charting centre, which is Java based. It look me some time to download the charts, may be connection was slow at that time. The site is worth trying.
I have included the PE of the stocks in the table for our benefit.
The fast moving scripts generally poses a problem to small investors; we tend to book profit as the earliest. Part profit booking is the prescribed method here. I generally take out the cost of my total investment and be safe (i.e. I sell 50% of my holding if the stock appreciates 100% in three month time). One can think about his own way to be in safer position as the volatility of the market will be there for some more time.
Today’s Slogan: Better to be Safer.
I have included the PE of the stocks in the table for our benefit.
The fast moving scripts generally poses a problem to small investors; we tend to book profit as the earliest. Part profit booking is the prescribed method here. I generally take out the cost of my total investment and be safe (i.e. I sell 50% of my holding if the stock appreciates 100% in three month time). One can think about his own way to be in safer position as the volatility of the market will be there for some more time.Today’s Slogan: Better to be Safer.
17 September, 2007
INSULATED INDIAN STOCK MARKET
It seems that the Indian Stock Market has pulled up well from the global sub prime crisis faster than other developed markets, which prompted some pundits to state, that our market is well insulated from other major markets (ref). It needs some courage to come out with the above as the markets in the present context are inter-webbed as never before. If we look at the indices for the last three months we will have to agree to this theory. Lets look at our own Sensex against developed market indices….
We have a certain and definite advantage over them. Luckily we have our own well defined market for our products.
But what about our services sector? Let’s pick up the IT industries and check for their movement with Sensex, it is a bleak story over there. 
We have a certain and definite advantage over them. Luckily we have our own well defined market for our products.But what about our services sector? Let’s pick up the IT industries and check for their movement with Sensex, it is a bleak story over there.
Question can be raised how can our own index can overrule this vital sector, is our index is also manipulated (induction of Unitech in Nifty) to the disadvantage of small investors, who always look up at the indices for market guidance?
Should we be assured of that we are not insulated from the slow down of North American market at least for our flagship industry of IT solution providers. There will be certain growth in the other sectors.
Should we be assured of that we are not insulated from the slow down of North American market at least for our flagship industry of IT solution providers. There will be certain growth in the other sectors.
But still it is a "India shining" story retold.
12 September, 2007
WAITING FOREVER TO BE DISCOVERED BY WORLD
Recently I have gone through a profile of Ramesh Damani (ET, 8th September,2007), the wily fox of Indian stock market. His conviction on the value of a stock impressed me. He is successful by any industry standard. His portfolio shows some unfancied stocks (like VST) which are giving a slow and steady run. His ability to identify the undervalued stocks has made him some fortune. Examples SBI (last market correction) and TISCO (after Corus deal), he picked them up not so long ago.
There are many undervalued stocks if you look into the market; they are also featured by any finance periodicals. The Outlook Money in their one of the August issue has identified six such stocks which are not fancied by the market though their valuations are very attractive. The author lacked conviction to suggest those stocks and recommended caution while investing in them. For our benefit let me list those stocks:
ANSAL HOUSING & CONSTRUCTION
FCS SOFTWARE SOLUTIONS
GIC HOUSING SOLUTIONS
SANGHI INDUSTRIES
SREI INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCE
TELEDATA INFORMATICS
Except Teledata and SREI all the other stocks were showing negative trends though on paper they have excellent credentials in them. They all have the potential to become multibaggers. But still they are unfancied by the market, they are waiting to be discovered for a long time. One will agree one year is a long time in a Bull Market like ours.
What matters is the visibility of a stock to be successful in the market. To me the stock should be visible to big players and which they can manipulate if required.
What is best for a small investor: to invest in a value stock like Mr. Ramesh Damani or in a visible fancied stock which has already started its run?
In the first case the investor may have to wait for some really long time because his thousands and lakhs will not impress other small investors.
In the second case he will make some quick bucks if he is careful and exit the stock well ahead of time. (Remember the greed and fear theory?)
The choice is on the Small Investors.
There are many undervalued stocks if you look into the market; they are also featured by any finance periodicals. The Outlook Money in their one of the August issue has identified six such stocks which are not fancied by the market though their valuations are very attractive. The author lacked conviction to suggest those stocks and recommended caution while investing in them. For our benefit let me list those stocks:
ANSAL HOUSING & CONSTRUCTION
FCS SOFTWARE SOLUTIONS
GIC HOUSING SOLUTIONS
SANGHI INDUSTRIES
SREI INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCE
TELEDATA INFORMATICS
Except Teledata and SREI all the other stocks were showing negative trends though on paper they have excellent credentials in them. They all have the potential to become multibaggers. But still they are unfancied by the market, they are waiting to be discovered for a long time. One will agree one year is a long time in a Bull Market like ours.
What matters is the visibility of a stock to be successful in the market. To me the stock should be visible to big players and which they can manipulate if required.
What is best for a small investor: to invest in a value stock like Mr. Ramesh Damani or in a visible fancied stock which has already started its run?
In the first case the investor may have to wait for some really long time because his thousands and lakhs will not impress other small investors.
In the second case he will make some quick bucks if he is careful and exit the stock well ahead of time. (Remember the greed and fear theory?)
The choice is on the Small Investors.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)