WHERE SENSEX IS HEADING TO?

IS THIS THE END OF THE WORLD?

IS THERE NOTHING LEFT IN INDIAN STOCK MARKET?

LOOKING AT SENSEX AT DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 10,000 MARK, IT GIVES ME SHIVERS IN MY SPINE. IT IS VERY NOT PLEASANT TO SEE MY CAPITAL ERODING.

INDIA IS A GROWING STORY. HAVE FAITH IN IT, BUT TREAD VERY VERY CAUTIOUSLY AT THIS VERY DIFFICULT JUNCTURE. NOBODY CAN PREDICT WHAT IS THERE IN FUTURE LURKING BEHIND THE MAZE OF COMPLEX FINANCIAL WEB. BUT STILL I AM A FIRM BELEIVER OF INDIAN STOCK MARKET.

RUMOURS ARE DOING ITS ROUND, BUT RUMOURS ARE RUMOURS.

"RUPEE IS AT A WHEN SENSEX WAS AT 5000, A FEW YEARS BACK. WILL SENSEX GO TO THAT LEVEL?"

BAKWAS!! MANY DOOMSDAY SAYER CRABS ARE THERE TO FINISH SMALL INVESTORS OFF.

IDENTIFY THEM AND REMEMBER WHAT THEY ARE SAYING NOW, JUST LIKE THOSE WHO WERE PROFESSING "THE THEORY OF DECOUPLING OF ECONOMICS". THESE ARE BAITS.

ALAS! YOU CAN SELL SOUR MANGOES ONCE, TWICE OR MAY BE MANY MANY TIMES TO THE REALLY SMALL AND HELPLESS UNSUSPECTING SMALL INVESTORS.

DILEMMA FOR SMALL INVESTORS:

It seems that we lack confidence to see our market above 20,000 mark of Sensex. If we go anywhere near the mark, we simply falter and whimper back to the so called comfort level of some 18,000. Are we still lacking in the conviction of a strong matured Indian Stock Market, which is not dictated by Hangseng, FTSE or Dow as fast as it is doing right now. I agree that no market can be insulated against the development in overall world scenario, if we consider the superimposition of economies.
But if any market is to climb higher, the Indian stock market is the most obvious choice. (Link to earlier post: here, here) Probably even the congenial Bears will tell; right now we are in a very good phase of Bull Run as almost all factors are favouring it. (Link: here)

The present lowering of market has presented us with a good chance to pick up some stocks which were in our radar for some time, at attractive price. The momentum boys RNRL, RPL, Nagarjuna Fertiliser, Bongaigaon Refinery and a host of other stocks have came down to a comfortable level to pick up. Some bigger boys L&T, Reliance, REL, Punj Lloyd, RCOM, State Bank etc. are now in pick-able price.
No wonder market pundits welcome correction. Should we wait for this correction to be over or just pick them up like that? It is a million dollar question. If we cannot effort to spend time in front of a computer to pick up stocks at theoretically correct time: it is simply not possible. For somebody of my type, who has engaged in other important jobs and cannot effort to spend time in front of a computer, I think picking up stock at a price at my comfortable level is the best bet.

I am sure; anyway we are going to have our market at a higher level in near future.

Now a small stock-poem

My stock: I do not sell it

If my stock remains at level, I do not sell it,
I wait for my stock to react.

If my stock goes down, I do not sell it,
I should not book loss, I can wait for some more time.

If my stock goes up, I do not sell it,
My stock will go up still higher.

I have my disciplines, I keep that in my mind
But never to practice.

SENSEX : POISED FOR CORRECTION?

There are two developments which may effect the Indian stock market on 17 th October 2007.

Firstly official from the Ministry of Finance said that the recent inflow of foreign money into our market is due to "Inflows are high as foreign institutional investors find Indian shares attractive" and "It is also because of the interest rate differentials". Link: News.

This is a statement made to control the damage from the statement made by Finance Minister Mr. P. Chidambaram. Link: News, earlier post.

And secondly SEBI is trying to control of Participatory Note participation in our market. The P-note is a derivative product used by overseas operators to protect their identity and the ease of entering and existing any market. Mostly the P-note is used for short term investment in market.
Read SEBI's Paper on the P-note here.

Many pundits beleive that the recent bull run of our market is also fuelled by the P-note phenomena to some extend.

We should be prepared to any kind of market reaction for both the above developments.

CONTROL SENSEX: JUSTIFIED MOVE?

One week is a long time in stock market, I took a break for one week and it crossed two mile stones (1800 and 1900). Though I still believe Sensex is just another set of numbers, we have some emotional values attached to it. It was pleasant to find the power stocks are powering their way up. It seems there is no end to FII flows which reminds me of a magic trick we all enjoyed during our childhood, the never ending “Water of India”. Sensex is going to cross 20000 in this very run ("19,300" just another number). May be some correction is in its way. News report.

The sheer pace of market movement has some element of doubts; at least our Finance Minister Mr. P. Chidambaram believes so. At the summit of Hindustan Times he showed his reservations and suspicion on how the movement of Sensex sometimes surprised, and sometimes worried him. He talked about the ‘copious inflow of funds from a number of sources’. It is always better to be cautious. But what about too much of it? Agreed that at the helm of affairs he has some responsibilities, especially to those small investors who invest their ‘life’s in the market. But those words in a forum are not exactly what were expected from him, it is no less than manipulating the stock market, trying to stop the natural market movement. Another report in CNBC (Payal Bhattar) says the market regulatory bodies will have two sittings per month as against one earlier. It seems he is really concerned to find a skeleton in the cupboard. Though I have my own doubts on his suspicions I have no objection to the regulatory bodies to be proactive.

Some experts are sure the market movement is due to robustness of our economy and the checks our regulatory bodies have put in place, copious monies can not simply play any major role in market manipulations. It is also believed by major section of small investors that our stock market has started its movement only now and it has unbound potential to go up and up and up. Remember Mr. P. Chidambaram is an economist of his own repute, and there are lot many who shares in his above observations.

The market will go up, the bull run as we all believe is there to stay for some more times, still we are to go slow and not be that greedy to put our life’s into the market.

Check the Sensex graph, may be another correction is in its way.
Disclaimer: I am not a technical analyst.

POWER SHOWS: MARKET THIS WEEK

Last week is to be marked for two reasons; first the index is just a whisker away from another milestone (Sensex: 18,000) and for the extreme volatility at this high valuation.

Secondly, the phenomenal rise of a dormant sector after a very long time, the POWER sector. Almost all the power stock surged ahead anticipating better market viability after the Power Grid Corporation of India made its debut in stock market (at a premium of 93.5% over issue price). Let us look at the followings and believe the appreciation in the last week only,

Reliance Energy by 20.12%
Tata Power: 10.52%
CESC: 15.76%
Suzlon: 13.79%
GVK Power by 2.3%

ADAG is talking about the mega issue of Reliance Power; so the street is now busy with Power play. Let me note a few figures down here

India’s per capita power consumption is 606 units per annum, a dismal low figure.
90,000 MW new generation capacity will be required in next seven years (we have 135,000 MW now).
Rs 8,00,000 Crores investment opportunity will be there.
Government is emphasizing in this sector.

May be Power merits some investment from the small investors? It is now correct to say “Power shows”. (Word of caution: Power stocks may correct after its too fast run.)

The volatility ensured the market to appreciate only reasonably in last week, Sensex by 2.79% and Nifty by 3.28%, CNX Midcap is laggard by only 0.63%.

Is the extreme volatility a sign of an impending correction?

To put down a hopeful statement “small and meaningful correction” is the best scenario for small investors.
Political issues on Nuclear Deal with United States (another Power story for a power starved nation like India) are proposing to take the shape of a snow ball. Statements are running thick and hard. Caution is prescribed for small investors, book some profit.

If the market corrects itself, small investors can buy some power stocks like Reliance Energy , Tata Power, NTPC, Power Grid Corporation of India etc at lower price. Note: RNRL may have some hidden story in the present Power sector story.

Bankex took some breathers fearing CRR hike last week. CRR hike now is ruled out by experts and downplayed by authorities. Look in that space too; SBI and Centurion Bank of Punjab may have some aces in its sleeve (some block deals last few days).

I should not forget to thank my friend “Greta”; she changed the layout of my blog.

INDIAN STOCK MARKET: DEFYING LAW OF GRAVITY:

Many pundits are baffled to see the pace at which Indian market is going up. Surpassing 1000 Sensex points at a record time (6 days) and still the market is not showing any let up. The much predicted profit booking session on this Friday was found to be elusive. The market has some discerning buyers. But interestingly not many dead wood were floating around this time, it is a selective surge forward.

To me the Indian stock market is actually behaving as it should behave, going up. I have my reasons and I am giving you only three

1. The Indian stock market is still accounting for a small fraction what the overall Indian economy actually is. Imagine a few public sector companies listed in Stock market; here I am throwing only two among lots BSNL and Railways. We should not forget the small scale industries which are not only profit making but also contributing a good fraction to GNP. What about cottage industries, unorganized transport industries, distribution network and so on. There are still lots of spaces to spread our legs.
2. We Indians are used to play it safe; we have some good savings tucked in bank fixed deposits, insurances or small saving accounts which do not fetch substantial return. Imagine the Indians discover the potential of stock market; our regulatory bodies are in right direction to prove that stock market is also a viable media to save or grow even for small investors.
3. Most of the developed markets are in a shabby condition, the investors are not very comfortable there and they are coming in flocks to emerging condition. The growing interest of them in Indian stock market is evident in the present rally.

So what is the optimum speed our market should go up? At an average 100 points of Sensex per day or 50 points or even 250 points to make our pundits comfortable. No one can have an answer.

So let us stop being Faberish till our fear over take our greed and bask in the rays of rising Sensex sun.

IS SENSEX ONLY A NUMBER?

Yesterday another milestone (15,000) achieved by Sensex or Indian Capital Market. Though market pundits tried to down play it by statingthat it was just another number waiting to be crossed, everyone including them were ecstatic. The Really Small and Helpless Investor (RSHI) will have renewed believe in the market.

Literally Sensex./ Nifty means nothing to small investors with very small amounts to invest in pricey Large-cap stocks. The dismal amount of dividends the index stocks yields in comparison to money invested is nothing. One of my friends (another RSHI) invested some good money around twenty Grands in ten shares of Infosys, the recent dividend he received was some pittance sixty five rupees only. It seems and is really worthless to have ten shares of an costly index stock, most of that sixty five rupees will be taken away by bank as transfer commission. I wonder why the dividends are not deposited in bank account directly. All Demat account holders must have a bank account and must be submitted while opening the Demat.

You can see the dividend declared by ONGC is another pinch of salt to injury. Had they not declared the dividends the stock price would have gone up leaving the small investors benefited. He would not have to deposit his cheque which the Bank Clark frown upon. The dividend payment policy is beneficial only to Big Investors and (for PSU) the Government, not to small investors. This is one of the main reasons the Really Small and Helpless Investor (RSHI) stays away from big index stocks, though the Large-cap stocks have shown excellent momentum in recent months.

The less costly Mid-cap and Micro-cap (Oh terminology! actually Small-cap) stocks do not provide this dilemma. The profits in most cases are utilized in expansion and stock price reacts.

(RSHI should preferably stay away from PSUs, I will have a public musing in this blog in coming days.)

I am very happy about the performance of Yes Bank, the run is not smooth but that’s a stock should do, correcting itself while going up.

Concern was about my second investment of HCL Technology, but CLSA predicted earning growth should be 62% for the next result. Only thing is rupee devaluation, Infy will lead the way as everybody believes. Probably wishes are shy away.

I purchased 100 stocks of IDBI at 117.90/- yesterday (with little conviction that market will not go down), but I have my own doubts. It was a spurt decision, will I repent later?

SMART MONEY AND DEAD INVESTMENT

I often hear people putting the term smart money here and there. To me, very simply put, smart moneys are those which are getting return, often beat the bank interest by a fair margin. It is for the interest of a Really Small and Helpless Investors to know or assess whether their money is smart enough in a long term investment.

My small capital can earn much more than the bank interest if I study the market and roll my money. I would rather prefer to roll my money for some quick gain instead of sitting on it, which is possible in the present bull market.
Diversification with a small capital is not a good idea, because there are much small head areas to diversify.
Risk aversion by being disciplined (not being greedy) is another key. Sell at my target price, at prefixed time period (whichever is early) and being courageous to book loss if necessary. It seems 10-20% profit in a month is a very good bet.
Timing the market is a dumb idea. Nobody can predict stock prices and choose correct timings; at best I can guess it.
Really Small and Helpless Investors (RSHI) are generally the last to be tipped off. I should apply discretion, to accept them.
Day trading is most risky, avoid even though there are enough time at my disposal.

After selling of Cummins I asked my broker to buy IFCI. As I knew the person for some time he came up with advice that I should not buy when the Sensex / Nifty is at its peak and asked me to wait for some time. I heeded his advice and repented after the day, IFCI made a nice run today. Missed bus carries no passenger. May be a correction is on anvil, after listing of DLF. Respect history.

The following stock are in my mind, I should study them

IDBI- It is ripe for one month investment for 10-20% growth.

Yes Bank- less than a month, next target may be Rs. 220/-. RSHI may exit below that level.