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Showing posts with label Timing the market. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Timing the market. Show all posts

22 October, 2007

HIGH P-NOTE EXPOSURE STOCKS

The recent clamp-down on P-note by Market Regulator has mixed reactions from different quarters. The stock market is going topsy-turvey on this issue for last few sessions. We all are confused along with the Indian Stock Market how to deal with this particular issue at hand. But anyway kudos to Regulators.

Probably we will be well off if we know the stocks where P-note exposure is high, I have come across such a list from a well known Blog (Investment Guru), I could not resist to note the stocks which he has shown as having high exposure to P-note.

India Bulls Financial Services
ICICI Bank
HDFC
Bharti Airtel
Reliance Capital
Reliance Energy
Financial Technologies
SAIL
IVRCL Infra
Gateway Distripark
Aptech
BHEL

To quote the statement "this is not an exhaustive list". Link:here

Now what to do in such a scenerio? To me for investors there is absolutely no sense to press the panic button. The P-note have eighteen months time to wind up, but only concern is for the so called market operators, they are already and will be out there in the market to skin unsuspecting small investors. The following three steps will help the small investors in the present scenerio

1. Do not indulge in short term trading. No fresh long term buy.
2. Do not empty up your stock portfolio, specially those family silvers.
3. Bottom fishing is ambiguous term, one can not time the market, we should keep in mind.

We small investors are better off if you compare with those fig fishes. We can hold back our positions till sunny days ahead.

03 July, 2007

SMART MONEY AND DEAD INVESTMENT

I often hear people putting the term smart money here and there. To me, very simply put, smart moneys are those which are getting return, often beat the bank interest by a fair margin. It is for the interest of a Really Small and Helpless Investors to know or assess whether their money is smart enough in a long term investment.

My small capital can earn much more than the bank interest if I study the market and roll my money. I would rather prefer to roll my money for some quick gain instead of sitting on it, which is possible in the present bull market.
Diversification with a small capital is not a good idea, because there are much small head areas to diversify.
Risk aversion by being disciplined (not being greedy) is another key. Sell at my target price, at prefixed time period (whichever is early) and being courageous to book loss if necessary. It seems 10-20% profit in a month is a very good bet.
Timing the market is a dumb idea. Nobody can predict stock prices and choose correct timings; at best I can guess it.
Really Small and Helpless Investors (RSHI) are generally the last to be tipped off. I should apply discretion, to accept them.
Day trading is most risky, avoid even though there are enough time at my disposal.

After selling of Cummins I asked my broker to buy IFCI. As I knew the person for some time he came up with advice that I should not buy when the Sensex / Nifty is at its peak and asked me to wait for some time. I heeded his advice and repented after the day, IFCI made a nice run today. Missed bus carries no passenger. May be a correction is on anvil, after listing of DLF. Respect history.

The following stock are in my mind, I should study them

IDBI- It is ripe for one month investment for 10-20% growth.

Yes Bank- less than a month, next target may be Rs. 220/-. RSHI may exit below that level.