FEW STOCK IDEAS

The escewed market seems to be settled now.

Oil is more or less steady, gold is trying to find its groove. Probably stock market is settled and have it discovered its real worth?

But inflation is still high and rising , high interest rates should slow down loan activity and thereby growth. Monsoon activity is good, though political heat is rising. (What Mamata B is upto? Is she a real politician? Politicians should have more tact and statesmanship.)

Whenever it seems that market is going up there will be something which will pull it down. This is a out and out Bear market, though it should be a Bull market by all arguments. But market does not reacts on arguments, than on sentiments.

Can we hide from the realities for long and simply shy away from it? It will be foolhardy if we donot reap some benefits by way of changing outlook to a long term view. Some stocks I have noted below which may merit long term outlook, lets see if you agree with me.

Yes Bank

Opto Circuit

Sesa Goa

State Bank of India

BHEL

IDFC
Hope to see you in near future.

NORTH AMERICAN SLUMP AND TWO STOCKS OF MY FANCY

The news of economic slump or the recession in North American market is probably the most dreaded word in world economic order. No body can ignore the huge impact of North American Market though few may try to wish it away. The slide of today’s market is the knee-jerk reaction by the world stock market on the latest assessment of situation over there. The situation will remain grim for some more time and probably there will not be any positive trigger for some more time if we believe the pundits and fund houses.

The situation may not be as bad, the overseas fund especially the North American funds should come out as a result of the recession and it should come to Emerging Markets and a major share will come to Indian stock market.

Indian domestic market is also large enough to sustain of its own. Imagine the crores of consumers; they can drive the economy forward. Luckily we did not become an export dependent/oriented economy though we strived to become one.

Anyway let’s discuss one stock “YES BANK” which caught my fancy recently, though I was very much aware of it and kept in my radar for a long time. But somehow it did not follow it up.

The stock has high return on equity, high growth and zero NPLs. The unique business model of the Bank presents promises for future growth. Detailed report is available in this link.

Another stock is GMR Infra, market lowered premium on this stock after its announcement of overseas acquisition. I am bullish on this stock and I think it is a good buy below hundred and seventy buck with a horizon of one year minimum. The analysis of the stock is available from the same link above.

The last correction and the topsy-turvy-yo-yo have reconfirmed my belief in profit booking.

SPARK IN THE BANKING STOCKS-II

The recent news of ING Vysya trying to acquire stakes in Centurion Bank of Punjab and Kotak Bank and the subsequent denial (or no comment) from ING Vysya indicates that there are some activities going on in Indian Banking Sector. After some subdued session the Benkex is actively participating in the present rally. State bank of India is already shining with all the news of stock split, bonus and preferential allotment of shares. ICICI Bank is trading at all time high. The growing interest of foreign banks to have foothold in our capital market certainly needs some vehicle. The mid cap private banks are the best bet for them.

How and where the FIIs have their exposure is a fascinating study. I have come across such a study in the Hindu Businessline (link-here); it sported a table on some prominent FII moves. FIIs are following some stock specific strategy not the sector specific buying. However it was noted the FIIs avoiding the oil refining sector and is going slow in pharma and health care sector (exception Glenmark, Glaxo and Nicholas Piramal).

Coming back to our context the FIIs raised their stake in Yes Bank from 15.3% in June-06 to 52.51% in june-07, i.e. a raise of 37.21%. It certainly is a substantial increase. Yes Bank has already established a niche model of banking which is different from other banks and seems it has all the support from Rabo Bank. Mr. Rana Kapoor is an ex-Rabo Bank Executive and Rabo Bank has a substantial stake. The above presents some rosy picture for the stock holders of Yes Bank.

The Centurion Bank of Punjab and Kotak Bank will definitely qualify to get a hold from Brokers if not outperformer.

Earlier post: SPARK IN THE BANKING STOCKS

IS SENSEX ONLY A NUMBER?

Yesterday another milestone (15,000) achieved by Sensex or Indian Capital Market. Though market pundits tried to down play it by statingthat it was just another number waiting to be crossed, everyone including them were ecstatic. The Really Small and Helpless Investor (RSHI) will have renewed believe in the market.

Literally Sensex./ Nifty means nothing to small investors with very small amounts to invest in pricey Large-cap stocks. The dismal amount of dividends the index stocks yields in comparison to money invested is nothing. One of my friends (another RSHI) invested some good money around twenty Grands in ten shares of Infosys, the recent dividend he received was some pittance sixty five rupees only. It seems and is really worthless to have ten shares of an costly index stock, most of that sixty five rupees will be taken away by bank as transfer commission. I wonder why the dividends are not deposited in bank account directly. All Demat account holders must have a bank account and must be submitted while opening the Demat.

You can see the dividend declared by ONGC is another pinch of salt to injury. Had they not declared the dividends the stock price would have gone up leaving the small investors benefited. He would not have to deposit his cheque which the Bank Clark frown upon. The dividend payment policy is beneficial only to Big Investors and (for PSU) the Government, not to small investors. This is one of the main reasons the Really Small and Helpless Investor (RSHI) stays away from big index stocks, though the Large-cap stocks have shown excellent momentum in recent months.

The less costly Mid-cap and Micro-cap (Oh terminology! actually Small-cap) stocks do not provide this dilemma. The profits in most cases are utilized in expansion and stock price reacts.

(RSHI should preferably stay away from PSUs, I will have a public musing in this blog in coming days.)

I am very happy about the performance of Yes Bank, the run is not smooth but that’s a stock should do, correcting itself while going up.

Concern was about my second investment of HCL Technology, but CLSA predicted earning growth should be 62% for the next result. Only thing is rupee devaluation, Infy will lead the way as everybody believes. Probably wishes are shy away.

I purchased 100 stocks of IDBI at 117.90/- yesterday (with little conviction that market will not go down), but I have my own doubts. It was a spurt decision, will I repent later?