POWER STOCK: RELIANCE POWER AND AFTER

Many investors walked through the Dalal Street and many an event happened in the background after the mega IPO of Reliance Power. It was an epoch making issue, investors of all hues ignoring all boundaries made it a point to invest in this offer. The power sector is the most happening sector right now and in the days to come, it held out much promise. In one of my earlier blogs (link) I discussed the issue as I was sure the issue will be a block buster and only a few will repeat its performance in future. I am still bullish in power sector in Indian context. (Earlier Popular Blogs link1, link2)

It is still a mystery what followed just prior to and after listing of the issue. We saw the melt down of Indian stock market, pundits tried to find out reasons, and as usual it is always easier to find the exact reason after any mishap. Post mortem report-"weak global cues". But interestingly some HNI and Institutional investors off loaded their holding of the issue just like a hot potato from their hand.

All of a sudden, few pundits suddenly discovered power stocks in India are over valued; so far we along with the same set of pundits were over optimistic in this sector. Now, many small investors panicked and sold off their holdings.

It seemed to me as a well orchested event that followed one after another in a systematic way. Whatever it may be, but it was successful, many small investors who invested in the issue with their hard earned money and some even with borrowed fund sold off their holdings and incurred heavy loss.

Should we pass on the blame to the promoter of the issue? Probably not, ADAG tried their best to allot shares to all small investors, (fifteen, sixteen shares) we are not complaining.

But the recent positive news of bonus shares, to make up the loss of investors, is laudable. The news also boosted the stock link. With this particular small gesture ADAG showed how they care for their investors. It also shows that they are bold enough to admit that may be their pricing of the stock was high.

Will it be very high expectation for the small investors to have such gestures from the houses of repute in future? May be ADAG set a high standard to emulate for all business houses.

IS INDIAN STOCK MARKET BEING MANIPULATED?

“The present slide of Indian stock market is due to global cues”, the market pundits are saying. By the very word “global cues” they are hinting to the “recession” of North American economy. All the major markets, including the robust emerging markets are showing weakness, and many are even hinting that the bears are taking over from the bulls.

To give a loose definition of recession: it is a contraction of economic activities spreading more than just a few months and becomes evident within a few months from the onset of it. The complex web of financial world which connects the world’s market makes it difficult to predict how the US recession will affect a particular market. So, generally many theories fly around. It is easier to press the panic button by one and for all. We have seen that rumors gain more ground than in normal condition.

Now we will come to know the “theory of decoupling of economies” will prove its mantle, as is being professed by many economists. But it seems the pillars of market are developing cracks, and may be it will be too late to welcome the onset of so called “decoupling of economies”.

Not going to financial theories and jargons, we should remember that the small investors are bleeding and the loss is far greater for small investors as they are not equipped to deal with falling market.

I always had some hunch of suspecting about the manipulation of our market by some unscrupulous operators. This particular view is probably shared by most of the small investors. We all will welcome the Regulator SEBI to play their positive role in this kind of manipulation if there is any.

Recently I have come across an interesting blog, which I think those who have the lingering doubts on market manipulation should go through it. LINK.

Can we do anything more than keeping our finger crossed anticipating the rebound of our market after the Budget session of Parliament?

MAKING MONEY IN INDIAN STOCK MARKET

"The market may test the last bottom again", a stern warning from different quarters.
"Stay away from market till it stabilizes. The market is under bearish fever." warning from another source.
"One should not buy in a falling market" - all the above warnings are from respected houses and pundits, when the market goes down.

"Ours is growth story", "difficult to copy our business model", "market is insulated from the rest of the world" and so on all the positive thinking from the same set of houses and pundits when our market was going up.

Why the contradiction of finding darkness in a lighted room? Very high level of spiritual intelligence?

To me the above is due to the heavy stakes the market pundits and fund houses have in the market. So they flounder and panick at the drop of a hat, and we have seen the grim faces of them in the TV screen recently. The same grim, smileless, serious faces in the TV which makes a mountain out of a mole hill everytime the market goes down.

Their heavy accent and drooping eyes make the small investors more nourvous, but they donot sell our stakes as fast as they advice and themselves do. We, small investors have our sweet time gap of selling and buying. And it is for various obvious reasons. We have experienced in most cases sweet time gap of selling and buying benefits us. Panick selling and buying are not for small investors.

We still make money and we take the correction as an opportunity to buy where-ever we zero in and whatever small fund we may have.

Can anybody lose money in a long time bull market.