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07 February, 2008

BUDGET 2008-09: POWER STOCKS

If you have noticed that before every budget the fertilizer stocks goes up anticipating some kind of package from Government. Generally all agriculture-based industries expect some kind of tax soap from the central budget. In most cases the budget addressed the expectations in the form of subsidies and tax cuts. And these measures helped our agriculture to arrive at where it is today.

As we are ushering our country to “Developed Economy”, it is the time to set our priority in some more areas too. The infrastructure sector needs financing to speed up the developmental activities. The success of Government is measured by good governance. Good governance includes the facilities provided to the citizens. The recent Gujarat election showcased the importance of good governance or development, to the political parties. With the developing economy, the common people expect basic infrastructure/facilities, and probably will shun the divisive politics the parties are now practicing.

Ours is power starved country, even with all out effort it will take some time to fill the gap of demand and supply. The power sector is targeting an increase of 78,500 mw in generating capacity during the 11th Plan (2207-2012) and the overall funding requirement will be Rs. 10,60,000 crore. It will be Herculean task to raise that much amount even with the proposed Tax-free Power Bonds, Power Vikash Patra and disinvestment of public sector power companies. The participation of private sector is of paramount importance to achieve the objective, the VC s and PE funds should be encouraged with additional tax benefits.

With the above in view the most likely gainers will be the power sector stocks. There should be secular growth in the sector and the growth should encompass the capital good companies manufacturing power equipment. The story has relevance and is already established by the eager participation in the recent Reliance Power IPO.

I am as always very bullish in this sector (link, link, link) and believe that this is the sector which will provide some silver linings in the dark cloud of overall gloomy picture of Indian stock market.

It is now the duty of small investor to do some research and pick the power stocks which will provide excellent growth opportunity.

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