RELIANCE POWER IPO: STOCK FOR SMALL INVESTORS

The plan to list Reliance Power Limited was a welcome step from R-ADA group and is eagerly anticipated by small investors. The red herring prospectus for the issue was submitted to SEBI on October 3. The company is supposed to sell 11.5% of post paid up capital of the company, which media reports have said may raise $2.8 billion. Probably it will be India’s biggest IPO. Reliance Power also has in interests in infrastructure, telecoms and financial sector. ADAG holds the company through various group companies including Reliance Energy which holds around 50% of the stake.

According to media report around 30% of the shares will be for retail clients, 10% will be for HNIs and rest 60% will be for Institutional Investors. There are reports that the face value of the stock may be of RS 10/- instead of Rs 2/- as initially proposed. link. The issue will definitely require the support from FIIs and DIIs. Some sources informs that the issue may be delayed by some more time. Link.

No doubt it will be a bonanza for retail investors as power sector is the dominant sector for immediate future.

There is some good news for the investors before the issue. Reliance Power has bagged the Krishnapatnam Ultra Mega Power Project. It has already bagged the Sasan and Mundra mega power projects. All the development is likely to make the issue more attractive.

www.bsensedaily.com has furnished a list of projects currently handled by Reliance Power Limited as follows:

• Rosa Phase I, a 600 MW coal-fired project in Uttar Pradesh scheduled to be commissioned in March 2010.
• Rosa Phase II, a 600 MW expansion of Rosa Phase I which is scheduled to be commissioned in September 2010.
• Butibori, a 300 MW coal-fired project scheduled to be commissioned in June 2010.
• Sasan 3,960MW UMPPs promoted and awarded by the Government of India is expected to be the largest pithead coal-fired power project at a single location in India,scheduled to be commissioned by April 2016.
• Shahapur, a 4,000 MW coal-fired(1,200 MW) and combined cycle gas-fired (2,800 MW) project in Shahapur, scheduled to be commissioned in March 2011.
• Urthing Sobla (400 MW), a run-of-the-river hydroelectric project, located on the Daulinganga River in Uttarakhand scheduled to be commissioned in March 2014.
Five other projects—the gas-fired Dadri project (7,480 MW), the coal-fired MP Power project (3,960 MW) and three run-of-the-river hydroelectric projects, Siyom (1,000 MW), Tato II (700 MW) and Kalai II (1,200 MW).

There are some controversies too. ADAG has alleged some market forces working against the mega issue and trying to thwart it. Link. REL investors are unhappy to find that no approval was sought from them for listing the issue as it has direct bearing on the income of REL. and so on. There is already premium on this issue in the grey market and some of the market operators are making losses, as the issue is delayed for various reasons but the grey market premium on the issue is increasing steadily. Link: Reliance Power IPO clouds grey market.

There is already a blog on this mega issue. But the buzz in the overall Indian finance Blogosphere about the mega issue of Reliance Power IPO is mixed and evoking different emotions. Most of the Indian Stock Market Blogs are maintaining a very neutral stand and just passing on the information on the issue only.

Yours truly is very bullish in the growing story of Power stocks and believes that this issue is genuinely going to lift our stock market to a few notches higher.

CAPITAL GOODS STOCKS: FULL OF PROMISES

One should have presence in stock market in a sector which is relevant and have the potential to grow aggressively in short and medium term. And icing on the cake will be if one can pick up stocks in that sector at an attractive value. The above is the most ideal situation for any investor.

The renewed emphasis on Indian infrastructure sector is noticeable in recent past, and the capital goods stocks are reaping maximum benefits. They have ever increasing order books as the result of overall well being of Indian economy. The strong quarterly numbers in this sector confirms that the general concern of this sector like execution risk, momentum of order book and funding will not be problem in foreseeable distance. We should not forget, we are targeting 9% GDP growth in the 11th Five Year Plan.

I have identified some stocks which in all probability will be the future leaders in capital good sector. The large caps like L&T, BHEL, Suzlon Energy are already been in the radar of most of the small investors.

The strong momentum of some visible mid caps is noticeable; Thermax, Punj Llyod, Cummins, Siemens, Alfa Laval etc are holding good promises.

Now for small investors let’s go back to first para of this blog: to pick up the selected capital good stocks at attractive value. Stock market is full of surprises, nobody is sure when the stocks will be presented to us on a platter to our likings. But can we pick them at that opportunate moment? I am not sure, downward price of any stock makes us doubting Thomas, and we miss the opportunities.

Let’s be prepared and not miss any opportunity. These stocks will make our portfolio richer.

POWER STOCKS: IDENTIFY THE WINNERS-II

There is a lot of hullabaloo about the valuation of power stocks in the Indian stock market. Being bullish (earlier post: here and here) in this sector made me to have a rethink. The power stocks passed a long period of sluggishness due to some archaic laws . There is a severe shortage of power in our country and with very conservative estimate the supply shortage to demand will remain until for at least another decade. Now government is putting emphasis on infrastructure and power. Logically power stocks are best bet to invest with a long term horizon.

The valuation of REL, NTPC, Power Grid, Tata Power are in the forties of their annualized sustainable earnings. Neyveli Lignite Corporation, Gujarat Industries Power Company, Lanco Infratech and GVK Power have higher valuations than a year ago. Power equipment manufacturers like BHEL, Cummins, Crompton Greaves are also have high valuation.

It seems that the power sector is in a different platform right now, which reminds me of the IT stocks a year back. The IT stocks justified their high PE with sustained earnings for a long period. Can the power stocks repeat the feat of IT stocks? Debatable! May be power stocks may correct to some extend in the days to come and to me that will be an opportunity to pick up some value stocks for some long term investment.

Some really attractive IPOs are coming in this sector. Reliance Power, NHPC and REC will present small investors a chance to pick them up at good valuations.

What about the recent listing Surjyachakra Power and IndoWind Energy? Surjyachakra Power has a tie up with a Chinese company to for a coal-fired project in Orissa. They are also good pick for small investors as they still have to find their groove in Market.

One should not worry for the power stocks in their portfolios as they are long term winner and outperformers in Indian Stock Market.

DILEMMA FOR SMALL INVESTORS:

It seems that we lack confidence to see our market above 20,000 mark of Sensex. If we go anywhere near the mark, we simply falter and whimper back to the so called comfort level of some 18,000. Are we still lacking in the conviction of a strong matured Indian Stock Market, which is not dictated by Hangseng, FTSE or Dow as fast as it is doing right now. I agree that no market can be insulated against the development in overall world scenario, if we consider the superimposition of economies.
But if any market is to climb higher, the Indian stock market is the most obvious choice. (Link to earlier post: here, here) Probably even the congenial Bears will tell; right now we are in a very good phase of Bull Run as almost all factors are favouring it. (Link: here)

The present lowering of market has presented us with a good chance to pick up some stocks which were in our radar for some time, at attractive price. The momentum boys RNRL, RPL, Nagarjuna Fertiliser, Bongaigaon Refinery and a host of other stocks have came down to a comfortable level to pick up. Some bigger boys L&T, Reliance, REL, Punj Lloyd, RCOM, State Bank etc. are now in pick-able price.
No wonder market pundits welcome correction. Should we wait for this correction to be over or just pick them up like that? It is a million dollar question. If we cannot effort to spend time in front of a computer to pick up stocks at theoretically correct time: it is simply not possible. For somebody of my type, who has engaged in other important jobs and cannot effort to spend time in front of a computer, I think picking up stock at a price at my comfortable level is the best bet.

I am sure; anyway we are going to have our market at a higher level in near future.

Now a small stock-poem

My stock: I do not sell it

If my stock remains at level, I do not sell it,
I wait for my stock to react.

If my stock goes down, I do not sell it,
I should not book loss, I can wait for some more time.

If my stock goes up, I do not sell it,
My stock will go up still higher.

I have my disciplines, I keep that in my mind
But never to practice.

POWER STOCKS: IDENTIFY THE WINNERS

The buzz word in the Indian stock market at present is “Power”. Being bullish in Indian stock market, more so in the power sector (earlier post: Power shows: Market this week) made me to have a look in this particular direction.
The recently introduced BSE Power Index is just an indication of aspiration the market have in this particular sector. This sector was neglected so far due to some prevailing draconian rules. With the development of economy and overall living standards of our country, Government can’t effort to ignore this sector. Let’s have a look at those power stocks which had entered into Indian stock market this year

Power Finance Corporation
Power Grid Corporation
Surjyachakra Power
Indowind Energy

All have done well so far in the market for their unique business models. To me these four stocks are yet to have a proper valuation and so they still have some upside left to be realized. If we consider the demand supply mismatch of power in our country the power stocks are most likely to appreciate and be outperformers to index. We have already seen some actions in this sector.

Some real big players are poised to enter our stock market in near future. Entry of these companies will further strengthen this sector. The noticeable will be the followings:

Reliance Power
Rural Electrification Corp.
NHPC
BGR Energy

We already are in the midst of a very good Bull Run of our market. The market may correct itself in a stock specific way, every time after a very good run. The concern for small investors for a proper area to park their profit may well be answered by stocks in this particular sector.

A good selection of mid cap power stocks at this juncture may yield some multibaggers. Fundamentally good power stocks are for some really long time hold, at least for a decade or till the demand supply mismatch will be shorted out (till 2017 as per investment bank Artherstone).

THE GREAT INDIAN BULL RUN

It seems that I am destined to miss the excitements of stock market during any of my hiatus from the blog to attend other engagements. The Sensex remained there at tantalizingly near 20,000 when I shined off, then it slided by around 2000 points for lack of cues. It made a resounding recovery of 924 points in a biggest single day rally to be there at its very correct place near 20,000. It reconfirmed my standing (my earlier popular blog: Should we buy stock now?) that there is still some time left for Bears to set in. For now it is the “Great Indian Bull Run”.

Market pundits always maintain, “bull markets don’t just die of old age, historically only one factor has terminated bull runs: rapidly rising interest rates. Bear markets occur when earnings collapse due to an economic recession, which in turn is brought about when real intereat rates cross the threshold of pain”. (Ruchir Sharma: The Sky Isn’t Falling –Yet, November 5, 2007, Newsweek)

To go by the above referred article there are still some way to go before the Indian Stock Market enters into the “bubble” territory. History shows the bubbles peaks when average stock price reach the level of 50-60 times projected earnings for the coming year. Some examples of bigger bubbles are NASDAQ in 1989 and Hong Kong market back in 1973, when the P/E ratio peaked at 55. The bubbles were busted by respective central banks by tightening measures.

Any tightening measure will result in slowing of overall economics of our country which the government will very reluctantly opt for, in all possibilities.

There are some theories floating around like “look beyond the index stocks”. This is a dangerous proposition to small investors as most of the small investors only look at the stock price movement, not beyond that. Some penny stocks are good bait for those unsuspecting small investors by those big great white sharks lurking in the deep blues of uncertainties. They should always value the fundamentals rather than unwanted tips from those uncertain sources.

A few issues back Outlook Money (15th October, 07) came up with nine good mid cap infrastructure stocks which seem to fit the bill for small investors. For small investors these stocks may be kept in their radar for picking up when the stock price and market allows picking (refer my earlier very popular blog: Waiting forever to be discovered by world). For our benefit let me note them down below:

Bharat Bijlee: Good order book and earning visibility.
Bharati Shipyard: Cost competitiveness results in better standings.
Era Infra Engg: Good project execution.
Hercules Hoists: Diverse Product Range in a modern manufacturing facility.
India Cement: Biggest cement manufacturer in South India.
Indo Tech Transformer: Impressive growth potential.
International combustion: Niche product range.
Paramount communication: May be the growth story to come next.
Voltamp Transformers: Should ride the infrastructure growth story.

In the mean time let us bask in the glory of Sensex Sun and as old adage says: make hey while the sun shines.

HOSTILE TAKEOVER: SMALL INVESTORS CONCERN

The upward movement of the Indian Stock Market is unabated; sometime it is scary as a small investor to be there, in front of the computer. Capitals of all forms and from all types of sources are entering in the market. It seems the flow will continue for some more times. The recent entry of some Pension indicates the robustness of Indian Stock Market. Some of these funds are well managed and proactive. They generally do not allow Corporate Houses to fiddle and they demand results. We are entering into a more matured stock market scenario in near future.

 

Hostile takeover in our market is virtually non existent, though it is a norm in developed markets. In many cases the hostile takeovers are welcomed by small investors, as they result in matured pricing of a stock.  Recently, there was a rumour of potential take over of Hindalco by a multinational corporation. It is scary not only for the small investors at this dizzy height but also to the corporate houses. The phenomena of hostile takeover will be reality in the coming years.  

 

The leading corporate houses are taking pre-emptive steps by increasing stakes in their companies. Though it is seen as to leverage the India growing story and exercise greater control in the companies; it will act as effective shield against hostile takeover too. I will furnish some figures in the table below which will tell stories if analyzed.

 

Corporate house	Company	Promoters holding % (June-07)	% increase in last one year
ADAG	Reliance Communication	66.75	24.52
ADAG	Reliance Capital	52.40	16.95
ADAG	Reliance Natural Resource	49.95	4.89
ADAG	Reliance Energy	35.90	30.90
Mukesh Ambani	Reliance Industries	50.98	1.15
Tatas	Tata Steel	33.77	6.89
Tatas	VSNL	76.24	4.72
Tatas	Indian Hotel	29.17	0.77
Tatas	Tata Tea	35.40	6.45
Tatas	TCS	79.12	-4.57
Bajaj	Bajaj Hindustan	40.90	3.19
Bajaj	Bajaj Auto	30.11	0.33
UB	United Spirit	38.10	1.78
OP Jindal	Jindal Stainless	42.56	1.98
OP Jindal	JSW Steel	46.43	1.28
Infosys	Infosys	16.54	-2.87
Satyam	Satyam	8.79	-0.39
Wipro	Wipro	79.58	-1.51
HCL	HCL Technologies	67.55	-1.75

 

The new equation of ownership may effect small investors, because in India the management and the promoters are same unlike other developed markets.

 

The increase in stake may dissuade potential take over premium of the stocks where the promoters are holding majority interest of the company. But at the same time the promoters will be at bay as they will always under pressure from those FIIs in addition to small investors best freind SEBI.

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SHOULD WE BUY STOCK NOW?

Right now Indian stock market is presently second most costly than only to Chinese stock market. The unprecedented capital flow in all possible form is worrying our market regulators. Even the P-note scare could result in a small flicker in the up and up going Sensex graph. Probably the market is over heated as some experts are saying. But any case it is certain we are in a long term Indian Bull Market.

It is difficult to make a buy call when the stock market is at all time high, and when the input news is of mixed kind. We have two choices in front of us if we have some cash waiting in our pocket to invest in stock market. The first choice is to wait for a market correction which is being predicted by many pundits or the second choice is to just take the plunge (or buy at the present rate).

To me both the above cases are extremes on opposite sides. If one waits for a market correction which may even come after a good rally of another few thousand points, may prove to be costly to the investor as he will miss the run of the market. Even the correction at that point may not be deep enough that will see the market lower than the present level. In any stock market 10-15% correction is a good correction.

And as in the second case, after buying at present level the market may tank (again 10-15% correction) and it will take some real long time to come back to present level. The buyer will have some agonizing time if he invests all his monies right now.

It is a matter of conviction, if we believe that we are in a strong Bull Run than the situation will be as follows:

In any bull market it is always a buy proposition for any buyer. We are going to find our market at higher level after the gap of a certain time. Especially those stocks with strong fundamentals, strong order book or in the right sectors. If one decides to enter market he can invest at any point of time, say one invests 50% of his capital in his stocks of choice, and may take the opportunity of any correction (10-15% correction of the index) to invest rest 50%. If the correction is elusive then invest another sum of 25% of his capital in the same stocks after every price rise of 25% of his stock. This way the buyer will always have his stocks at lower value than the market price at the same time will not miss the present Bull Run.

It will be a pity if one misses the present Bull Run by sitting in the side line. This run may not be repeated in future as all factors favours Indian Stock market right now.

Footnote: Stock market is again all about conviction of the investor. My conviction, yes we are in a strong Bull Run of Indian Stock Market and it is due to followings:
There are many theories after the North American sub-prime crisis that all the emerging markets are poised to fall as the cash starved American shoppers will feel the pinch in due course. But probably not the Indian stock market, as the 1.1 billion consumer of domestic market will provide an effective shield against any financial instability world wide. The calculated reforms in the Indian financial sectors have resulted in a very stable economy which is yielding results at present. Indian domestic market is getting bigger as the per capita income will cross $1,000 within this year. Our domestic savings is highest if we compare with developed countries. We can look forward to sustainable growth rate above 10 percent by 2011 if we further liberaralise our labour market, as concluded by a study by “Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development”.

I suggest reading the following article: In the Comfort Zone: by George Wehrfritz and Jason Overdorf. Newsweek, October 22, 2007

HIGH P-NOTE EXPOSURE STOCKS

The recent clamp-down on P-note by Market Regulator has mixed reactions from different quarters. The stock market is going topsy-turvey on this issue for last few sessions. We all are confused along with the Indian Stock Market how to deal with this particular issue at hand. But anyway kudos to Regulators.

Probably we will be well off if we know the stocks where P-note exposure is high, I have come across such a list from a well known Blog (Investment Guru), I could not resist to note the stocks which he has shown as having high exposure to P-note.

India Bulls Financial Services
ICICI Bank
HDFC
Bharti Airtel
Reliance Capital
Reliance Energy
Financial Technologies
SAIL
IVRCL Infra
Gateway Distripark
Aptech
BHEL

To quote the statement "this is not an exhaustive list". Link:here

Now what to do in such a scenerio? To me for investors there is absolutely no sense to press the panic button. The P-note have eighteen months time to wind up, but only concern is for the so called market operators, they are already and will be out there in the market to skin unsuspecting small investors. The following three steps will help the small investors in the present scenerio

1. Do not indulge in short term trading. No fresh long term buy.
2. Do not empty up your stock portfolio, specially those family silvers.
3. Bottom fishing is ambiguous term, one can not time the market, we should keep in mind.

We small investors are better off if you compare with those fig fishes. We can hold back our positions till sunny days ahead.

SENSEX : POISED FOR CORRECTION?

There are two developments which may effect the Indian stock market on 17 th October 2007.

Firstly official from the Ministry of Finance said that the recent inflow of foreign money into our market is due to "Inflows are high as foreign institutional investors find Indian shares attractive" and "It is also because of the interest rate differentials". Link: News.

This is a statement made to control the damage from the statement made by Finance Minister Mr. P. Chidambaram. Link: News, earlier post.

And secondly SEBI is trying to control of Participatory Note participation in our market. The P-note is a derivative product used by overseas operators to protect their identity and the ease of entering and existing any market. Mostly the P-note is used for short term investment in market.
Read SEBI's Paper on the P-note here.

Many pundits beleive that the recent bull run of our market is also fuelled by the P-note phenomena to some extend.

We should be prepared to any kind of market reaction for both the above developments.

CONTROL SENSEX: JUSTIFIED MOVE?

One week is a long time in stock market, I took a break for one week and it crossed two mile stones (1800 and 1900). Though I still believe Sensex is just another set of numbers, we have some emotional values attached to it. It was pleasant to find the power stocks are powering their way up. It seems there is no end to FII flows which reminds me of a magic trick we all enjoyed during our childhood, the never ending “Water of India”. Sensex is going to cross 20000 in this very run ("19,300" just another number). May be some correction is in its way. News report.

The sheer pace of market movement has some element of doubts; at least our Finance Minister Mr. P. Chidambaram believes so. At the summit of Hindustan Times he showed his reservations and suspicion on how the movement of Sensex sometimes surprised, and sometimes worried him. He talked about the ‘copious inflow of funds from a number of sources’. It is always better to be cautious. But what about too much of it? Agreed that at the helm of affairs he has some responsibilities, especially to those small investors who invest their ‘life’s in the market. But those words in a forum are not exactly what were expected from him, it is no less than manipulating the stock market, trying to stop the natural market movement. Another report in CNBC (Payal Bhattar) says the market regulatory bodies will have two sittings per month as against one earlier. It seems he is really concerned to find a skeleton in the cupboard. Though I have my own doubts on his suspicions I have no objection to the regulatory bodies to be proactive.

Some experts are sure the market movement is due to robustness of our economy and the checks our regulatory bodies have put in place, copious monies can not simply play any major role in market manipulations. It is also believed by major section of small investors that our stock market has started its movement only now and it has unbound potential to go up and up and up. Remember Mr. P. Chidambaram is an economist of his own repute, and there are lot many who shares in his above observations.

The market will go up, the bull run as we all believe is there to stay for some more times, still we are to go slow and not be that greedy to put our life’s into the market.

Check the Sensex graph, may be another correction is in its way.
Disclaimer: I am not a technical analyst.

POWER SHOWS: MARKET THIS WEEK

Last week is to be marked for two reasons; first the index is just a whisker away from another milestone (Sensex: 18,000) and for the extreme volatility at this high valuation.

Secondly, the phenomenal rise of a dormant sector after a very long time, the POWER sector. Almost all the power stock surged ahead anticipating better market viability after the Power Grid Corporation of India made its debut in stock market (at a premium of 93.5% over issue price). Let us look at the followings and believe the appreciation in the last week only,

Reliance Energy by 20.12%
Tata Power: 10.52%
CESC: 15.76%
Suzlon: 13.79%
GVK Power by 2.3%

ADAG is talking about the mega issue of Reliance Power; so the street is now busy with Power play. Let me note a few figures down here

India’s per capita power consumption is 606 units per annum, a dismal low figure.
90,000 MW new generation capacity will be required in next seven years (we have 135,000 MW now).
Rs 8,00,000 Crores investment opportunity will be there.
Government is emphasizing in this sector.

May be Power merits some investment from the small investors? It is now correct to say “Power shows”. (Word of caution: Power stocks may correct after its too fast run.)

The volatility ensured the market to appreciate only reasonably in last week, Sensex by 2.79% and Nifty by 3.28%, CNX Midcap is laggard by only 0.63%.

Is the extreme volatility a sign of an impending correction?

To put down a hopeful statement “small and meaningful correction” is the best scenario for small investors.
Political issues on Nuclear Deal with United States (another Power story for a power starved nation like India) are proposing to take the shape of a snow ball. Statements are running thick and hard. Caution is prescribed for small investors, book some profit.

If the market corrects itself, small investors can buy some power stocks like Reliance Energy , Tata Power, NTPC, Power Grid Corporation of India etc at lower price. Note: RNRL may have some hidden story in the present Power sector story.

Bankex took some breathers fearing CRR hike last week. CRR hike now is ruled out by experts and downplayed by authorities. Look in that space too; SBI and Centurion Bank of Punjab may have some aces in its sleeve (some block deals last few days).

I should not forget to thank my friend “Greta”; she changed the layout of my blog.

INDIAN STOCK MARKET: DEFYING LAW OF GRAVITY:

Many pundits are baffled to see the pace at which Indian market is going up. Surpassing 1000 Sensex points at a record time (6 days) and still the market is not showing any let up. The much predicted profit booking session on this Friday was found to be elusive. The market has some discerning buyers. But interestingly not many dead wood were floating around this time, it is a selective surge forward.

To me the Indian stock market is actually behaving as it should behave, going up. I have my reasons and I am giving you only three

1. The Indian stock market is still accounting for a small fraction what the overall Indian economy actually is. Imagine a few public sector companies listed in Stock market; here I am throwing only two among lots BSNL and Railways. We should not forget the small scale industries which are not only profit making but also contributing a good fraction to GNP. What about cottage industries, unorganized transport industries, distribution network and so on. There are still lots of spaces to spread our legs.
2. We Indians are used to play it safe; we have some good savings tucked in bank fixed deposits, insurances or small saving accounts which do not fetch substantial return. Imagine the Indians discover the potential of stock market; our regulatory bodies are in right direction to prove that stock market is also a viable media to save or grow even for small investors.
3. Most of the developed markets are in a shabby condition, the investors are not very comfortable there and they are coming in flocks to emerging condition. The growing interest of them in Indian stock market is evident in the present rally.

So what is the optimum speed our market should go up? At an average 100 points of Sensex per day or 50 points or even 250 points to make our pundits comfortable. No one can have an answer.

So let us stop being Faberish till our fear over take our greed and bask in the rays of rising Sensex sun.

SPARK IN THE BANKING STOCKS-II

The recent news of ING Vysya trying to acquire stakes in Centurion Bank of Punjab and Kotak Bank and the subsequent denial (or no comment) from ING Vysya indicates that there are some activities going on in Indian Banking Sector. After some subdued session the Benkex is actively participating in the present rally. State bank of India is already shining with all the news of stock split, bonus and preferential allotment of shares. ICICI Bank is trading at all time high. The growing interest of foreign banks to have foothold in our capital market certainly needs some vehicle. The mid cap private banks are the best bet for them.

How and where the FIIs have their exposure is a fascinating study. I have come across such a study in the Hindu Businessline (link-here); it sported a table on some prominent FII moves. FIIs are following some stock specific strategy not the sector specific buying. However it was noted the FIIs avoiding the oil refining sector and is going slow in pharma and health care sector (exception Glenmark, Glaxo and Nicholas Piramal).

Coming back to our context the FIIs raised their stake in Yes Bank from 15.3% in June-06 to 52.51% in june-07, i.e. a raise of 37.21%. It certainly is a substantial increase. Yes Bank has already established a niche model of banking which is different from other banks and seems it has all the support from Rabo Bank. Mr. Rana Kapoor is an ex-Rabo Bank Executive and Rabo Bank has a substantial stake. The above presents some rosy picture for the stock holders of Yes Bank.

The Centurion Bank of Punjab and Kotak Bank will definitely qualify to get a hold from Brokers if not outperformer.

Earlier post: SPARK IN THE BANKING STOCKS

HOW TO TRACK BULK DEALS IN INDIAN STOCK MARKET

The small investors have many disadvantages in Indian stock market. They seldom get the correct news at correct time. Getting news late is equal to getting no news at all or at times results in negative action. Stock market in most cases reacts sharply to news and small investors left gaping in the dark and wondering why the stock price has reacted in a particular manner. (My earlier posts, here, here, here)

 

It is a known fact that the market mostly reacts to the tunes of big investors. The FIIs generally accounts for around 33-35% of total market turnover, domestic mutual funds around 10-12% and HNI have their mixed share. Stock price reacts positively if a particular stock is picked by these big investors and negatively if a stock is off loaded by them for the sheer volume traded.

 

It is also important to know how much big investors are holding a particular stock, or if the big investors have increased their holding in that particular stock.

 

There are few sites from which the above information can be accessed. These sites will serve the small investors better if utilized judiciously

 

http://www.sebi.gov.in/Index.jsp?contentDisp+FIItrends

http://www.nseindia.com/content/equities/eq_bulkdeals.htm

http://www.nseindia.com/content/equities/eq_bulkdealsarchive.htm

http://www.bseindia.com/shareholding/sharehold_search.asp

http://www.corpfiling.co.in

 

Words of caution: It seems easy to piggy-ride the big institutional investors but actually not so. These information are available only after the deals are made, at the end of the trading hours and by the time most of the benefits generally erode away. For small investors so there is every chance of being in the wrong side of a particular trade.  One should remember that the mere presence of institutional investor in a particular stock does not necessarily enhance the intrinsic value of that stock. Big institutional investors may stay invested in any stock for many other reasons.

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GREAT MONTHLY RETURN IN STOCK MARKET

It is heartening to see the present Bull Run of Indian Stock Market propelled some stocks to new highs. I have come across the following table in the Paisa Builder portal of IDBI, and found the portal is beautifully designed and many features are free (link here). Only hic-up for me till now, is the charting centre, which is Java based. It look me some time to download the charts, may be connection was slow at that time. The site is worth trying.
I have included the PE of the stocks in the table for our benefit.

The fast moving scripts generally poses a problem to small investors; we tend to book profit as the earliest. Part profit booking is the prescribed method here. I generally take out the cost of my total investment and be safe (i.e. I sell 50% of my holding if the stock appreciates 100% in three month time). One can think about his own way to be in safer position as the volatility of the market will be there for some more time.

Today’s Slogan: Better to be Safer.

SHAKY MARKET: BARTON BIGGS PERSPECTIVES

The world stock market is behaving weirdly since mid July. There has been extreme volatility at times which is infusing fear into the minds of small investors.

Why this volatility? Barton Biggs, the famous Wall Street strategist has the answer and has lucidly put in Newsweek (p-35, September 17, 2007).

At present stock markets are mainly dominated by hedge funds and trading desks. Those are run by people who are under extreme pressure to beat the benchmark or they may be shown the door by their intolerant clients. Most of them are not exceptionally brilliant and they mostly follow the simple method of momentum investing. They get panicked once the “market acts badly” or goes down and sell into the decline. “Selling begets more selling and vice versa”.
Conversely when the “market acts well” or goes up they are panicked again as they may miss the chance to make back their losses, the buying panic develops. Hedging of Indexes is another reason for the volatilities, the fund managers who held the illiquid bonds sold the major indexes short to safeguard themselves from falling income positions.

Barton Biggs is feels that “it is certainly healthy that the mortgage high yield debt bubble has been pricked”. The world economy is healthy and the developing economies are main driving force at present.

To him the small investors should not get swayed by the gyration of the stock markets and stay invested in reasonably valued good stocks in long term perspectives or in index funds. The big global companies and emerging market funds will serve the small investors.

Mr. Biggs is a respected name in American financial market.

INSULATED INDIAN STOCK MARKET

It seems that the Indian Stock Market has pulled up well from the global sub prime crisis faster than other developed markets, which prompted some pundits to state, that our market is well insulated from other major markets (ref). It needs some courage to come out with the above as the markets in the present context are inter-webbed as never before. If we look at the indices for the last three months we will have to agree to this theory. Lets look at our own Sensex against developed market indices….

We have a certain and definite advantage over them. Luckily we have our own well defined market for our products.

But what about our services sector? Let’s pick up the IT industries and check for their movement with Sensex, it is a bleak story over there.

Question can be raised how can our own index can overrule this vital sector, is our index is also manipulated (induction of Unitech in Nifty) to the disadvantage of small investors, who always look up at the indices for market guidance?

Should we be assured of that we are not insulated from the slow down of North American market at least for our flagship industry of IT solution providers. There will be certain growth in the other sectors.

But still it is a "India shining" story retold.

WAITING FOREVER TO BE DISCOVERED BY WORLD

Recently I have gone through a profile of Ramesh Damani (ET, 8th September,2007), the wily fox of Indian stock market. His conviction on the value of a stock impressed me. He is successful by any industry standard. His portfolio shows some unfancied stocks (like VST) which are giving a slow and steady run. His ability to identify the undervalued stocks has made him some fortune. Examples SBI (last market correction) and TISCO (after Corus deal), he picked them up not so long ago.
There are many undervalued stocks if you look into the market; they are also featured by any finance periodicals. The Outlook Money in their one of the August issue has identified six such stocks which are not fancied by the market though their valuations are very attractive. The author lacked conviction to suggest those stocks and recommended caution while investing in them. For our benefit let me list those stocks:

ANSAL HOUSING & CONSTRUCTION
FCS SOFTWARE SOLUTIONS
GIC HOUSING SOLUTIONS
SANGHI INDUSTRIES
SREI INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCE
TELEDATA INFORMATICS

Except Teledata and SREI all the other stocks were showing negative trends though on paper they have excellent credentials in them. They all have the potential to become multibaggers. But still they are unfancied by the market, they are waiting to be discovered for a long time. One will agree one year is a long time in a Bull Market like ours.
What matters is the visibility of a stock to be successful in the market. To me the stock should be visible to big players and which they can manipulate if required.
What is best for a small investor: to invest in a value stock like Mr. Ramesh Damani or in a visible fancied stock which has already started its run?
In the first case the investor may have to wait for some really long time because his thousands and lakhs will not impress other small investors.
In the second case he will make some quick bucks if he is careful and exit the stock well ahead of time. (Remember the greed and fear theory?)

The choice is on the Small Investors.

WHERE INDIAN STOCK MARKET IS HEADING

When I took a hiatus from this blog, the Indian market moved like a yo-yo. The whole world financial market was in a doldrums. Panic selling out weighted the actual problem. The reason, as aptly put up by George Wehrfritz in Newsweek is - "The force that tethers all of these debacles to the growing number of Americans who can not pay their mortgages is one that increasingly sets the cadence for global commerce: risk." Now-a-days the credit risks are spread as tradable product to the willing customers. This dispersion has a cascading effect to the whole world financial market.

 

Luckily the American Central Bankers pumped liquidity (a staggering $ 325 billion) into the system and the Fed raised hopes for a rate hike. The news simply pumped the much needed air into the Indian bubble. The stock market rallied for continuous eight days. It now seems that the market tank was the much needed correction. 

 

But there are words of caution flying around like – "fourth generation financial crisis", "US economy knocked into a serious recession", "crisis beyond today's bad debt", "cusp of a system changing crash" etc. But issues like how the plunging stock price will affect the large economies vis-à-vis emerging markets are not still very clear.

 

It seems the American market is certainly not over the hill. The ensuing crisis in Asian market raises question about the ability of Asian markets to stands of its own. Rise of China as manufacturing hub of the world and India as the global service provider was the answer to international financial reorientation. But both the economies are still heavily dependent on North American and European markets and will be so for at least for some time to come.

 

The complex web of international financial market is sure to leave some mark on Indian stock market. The use of complex securities as buffer to global turbulence leaves a question mark on the efficacy of the present financial system (here I means the Banks). There will be a contradiction between the old guards and the new evolving financial frameworks. It is better if the old guards viz. the financial institutions understands and prepare themselves for new financial order (sooner the better) they will survive and prosper, otherwise they will be doomed and with them the helpless and poorly informed small investors.

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